Factors controlling northward and north-eastward moving tropical cyclones near the coast of East Asia

Abstract

The impacts of multi-time-scale flows on northward and north-eastward moving tropical cyclones (TCs) near the east coast of China in August and September are investigated using reanalysis data from 1982 to 2012. TCs of interest are under the influence of the subtropical high-pressure system in the western North Pacific (WNP). In August when the subtropical high-pressure system is strong and close to the coast line, most TCs in the region move northward, while more TCs move north-eastward in September when the subtropical high-pressure system retreats to the east.

To investigate the influence from different time-scales, the environmental flow is divided into four components, the synoptic flow, the intraseasonal flow, the interannual flow and the climatological background field. Analysis of steering flows between 25°N and 30°N indicates that the meridional steering vectors from all time-scales point to the north, dominated by the intraseasonal component. The deciding factor on whether a TC moves to the north or north-east between 25°N and 30°N is the zonal steering vector. For the northward moving group, the sum of the zonal steering from all time-scales is very small. On the other hand, the north-east moving group has a net eastward zonal component mainly contributed by the climatological mean flow.

Several individual cases that stood out from the majority of the group are analyzed. For those cases, the intraseasonal flow plays an important role in affecting the movement of the TCs mainly through the wave train, in which a cyclonic circulation is located to the north-west (north) and an anticyclonic circulation to the south-east (east) of TCs. The analysis of the steering vectors indicates the importance of all components with different time-scales to the movement of TCs.

Keywords

northward moving TC / north-eastward moving TC / steering flow

References

[1] Anthes R A (1982). Tropical cyclones: their evolution, structure and effects. Amer Meteor Soc Meteorological Monographs, 19: 208

[2] Bi M Y, Li T, Peng M, Shen X Y (2015). Interactions between Typhoon Megi (2010) and a low-frequency monsoon gyre. J Atmos Sci, 72(7): 2682–2702

[3] Camargo S J, Robertson A W, Gaffney S J, Smyth P, Ghil M (2007). Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part II: large-scale circulation and ENSO. J Clim, 20(14): 3654–3676

[4] Cao X, Li T, Peng M, Chen W, Chen G H (2014). Effects of monsoon trough intraseasonal oscillation on tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. J Atmos Sci, 71(12): 4639–4660

[5] Carr L E III, Elsberry R L (1995). Monsoonal interactions leading to sudden tropical cyclone track change. Mon Weather Rev, 123(2): 265–290

[6] Chan J C L (1985). Identification of the steering flow for tropical cyclone motion from objectively analyzed wind fields. Mon Weather Rev, 113(1): 106–116

[7] Chan J C L (2005). Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Meteorol Atmos Phys, 89(1–4): 143–152

[8] Chan J C L, Gray W M (1982). Tropical cyclone movement and surrounding flow relationships. Mon Weather Rev, 110(10): 1354–1374

[9] Chan J C L, Williams R T (1987). Analytical and numerical studies of the beta-effect in tropical cyclone motion. Part I: zero mean flow. J Atmos Sci, 44(9): 1257–1265

[10] Dee D P, Uppala S M, Simmons A J, Berrisforda P, Polia P, Kobayashib S, Andraec U, Balmasedaa M A, Balsamoa G, Bauera P, Bechtolda P, Beljaarsa A C M, van de Bergd L, Bidlota J, Bormanna N, Delsola C, Dragania R, Fuentesa M, Geera A J, Haimbergere L, Healya S B, Hersbacha H, Holm E V, Isaksena L, Kallberg P, Kohler M, Matricardia M, McNallya A P, Monge-Sanzf B M, Morcrettea J J, Parkg B K, Peubeya C, de Rosnaya P, Tavolatoe C, Thepaut J N, Vitarta F (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: 391 Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. 392 Meteor. Q J Roy Meteor Soc, 137: 553–597

[11] Duchon C E (1979). Lanczos filtering in one and two dimensions. J Appl Meteorol, 18(8): 1016–1022

[12] Fiorino M, Elsberry R L (1989). Some aspects of vortex structure related to tropical cyclone motion. J Atmos Sci, 46(7): 975–990

[13] George J E, Gray W M (1976). Tropical cyclone motion and surrounding parameter relationships. J Appl Meteorol, 15(12): 1252–1264

[14] George J E, Gray W M (1977). Tropical cyclone recurvature and nonrecurvature as related to surrounding wind-height fields. J Appl Meteorol, 16(1): 34–42

[15] Holland G J (1983). Tropical cyclone motion: environmental interaction plus a beta effect. J Atmos Sci, 40(2): 328–342

[16] Holland G J (1984). Tropical cyclone motion: a comparison of theory and observation. J Atmos Sci, 41(1): 68–75

[17] Hsu P C, Li T (2011). Interactions between boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and synoptic-scale disturbances over the western North Pacific. Part II: apparent heat and moisture sources and eddy momentum transport. J Clim, 24(3): 942–961

[18] Kim J H, Ho C H, Kim H S, Sui C H, Park S K (2008). Systematic variation of summertime tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the Madden-Julian oscillation. J Clim, 21(6): 1171–1191

[19] Kurihara Y, Bender M A, Tuleya R E, Ross R J (1995). Improvements in the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Mon Wea Rrev, 123(9): 2791–2801

[20] Lander M, Holland G J (1993). On the interaction of tropical-cyclone-scale vortices. Part I: observations. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc, 119(514): 1347–1361

[21] Li R C Y, Zhou W (2013). Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by the ISO. Part II: tracks and landfalls. J Clim, 26(9): 2919–2930

[22] Li T, Zhu Y (1991). Analysis and modeling of tropical cyclone motion. Part I: asymmetric structure and sudden change of tracks. Sci China, 34(2): 222–233 (Series B)

[23] Li T, Wang B (2005). A review on the western North Pacific monsoon: synoptic-to-interannual variabilities. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci, 16(2): 285–314

[24] Li T (2010). Monsoon climate variabilities. Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary, 10: 27–51

[25] Li T (2014). Recent advance in understanding the dynamics of the Madden-Julian oscillation. J Meteor Res, 28(1): 1–33

[26] Liu Q, Li T, Zhou W C (2018). Impact of 10–60-day low-frequency steering flows on straight northward-moving typhoon tracks over the western North Pacific. J Meteor Res, 32(3): 394–409

[27] Maue R N (2011). Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity. Geophys Res Lett, 38(14): 14803

[28] Miyasaka T, Nakamura H (2005). Structure and formation mechanisms of the Northern Hemisphere summertime subtropical highs. J Clim, 18(23): 5046–5065

[29] Takahashi C, Shirooka R (2014). Storm track activity over the North Pacific associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation under ENSO conditions during boreal winter. J Geophys Res D Atmospheres, 119(18): 10,663–10,683

[30] Tao L, Li S J, Han Y, Wu M (2012). Impact of intraseasonal oscillations of tropical atmosphere on TC track change over the western North Pacific. J Trop Meteorol, 28(5): 698–706

[31] Wang B, Chan J C (2002). How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim, 15(13): 1643–1658

[32] Wang B, Elsberry R L, Wang Y Q, Wu L G (1998). Dynamics in tropical cyclone motion: A review. Chin J Atmos Sci, 22(4): 535–547

[33] Wang C Z, Li C X, Mu M, Duan W S (2013). Seasonal modulations of different impacts of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn, 40(11–12): 2887–2902

[34] Williams R T, Chan J C (1994). Numerical studies of the beta effect in tropical cyclone motion. Part II: zonal mean flow effects. J Atmos Sci, 51(8): 1065–1076

[35] Yang L, Du Y, Wang D, Wang C, Wang X (2015). Impact of intraseasonal oscillation on the tropical cyclone track in the South China Sea. Clim Dyn, 44(5–6): 1505–1519

[36] Yonekura E, Hall T M (2014). ENSO effect on East Asian tropical cyclone landfall via changes in tracks and genesis in a statistical model. J Appl Meteorol Climatol, 53(2): 406–420

[37] Yoshida R, Kajikawa Y, Ishikawa H (2014). Impact of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on environment of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific. Sola, 10(0): 15–18

[38] Zhang W, Leung Y, Chan J C L (2013). The analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific through data mining. Part I: Tropical cyclone recurvature. J Appl Meteorol Climatol, 52(6): 1394–1416

Acknowledgments

This work was jointly supported by National Key R&D Program of China (Grant Nos. 2018YFC1505800 and 2015CB453200), NOAA (No. NA18OAR4310298), National Science Foundation (No. AGS-1643297), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41630423 and 41875069), and NRL (Grant No. N00173-16-1-G906) and China Scholarship Council (Grant No. N201908320496). This is SOEST contribution number 10834, IPRC contribution number 1409 and ESMC number 285.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2019 Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature