Improved Kalman filter method considering multiple factors and its application in landslide prediction

Abstract

Landslides, seriously threatening human lives and environmental safety, have become some of the most catastrophic natural disasters in hilly and mountainous areas worldwide. Hence, it is necessary to forecast landslide deformation for landslide risk reduction. This paper presents a method of predicting landslide displacement, i.e., the improved multi-factor Kalman filter (KF) algorithm. The developed model has two advantages over the traditional KF approach. First, it considers multiple external environmental factors (e.g., rainfall), which are the main triggering factors that may induce slope failure. Second, the model includes random disturbances of triggers. The proposed model was constructed using a time series which consists of over 16-month of data on landslide movement and precipitation collected from the Miaodian loess landslide monitoring system and nearby meteorological stations in Shaanxi province, China. Model validation was performed by predicting movements for periods of up to 7 months in the future. The performance of the developed model was compared with that of the improved single-factor KF, multi-factor KF, multi-factor radial basis function, and multi-factor support vector regression approaches. The results show that the improved multi-factor KF method outperforms the other models and that the predictive capability can be improved by considering random disturbances of triggers.

Keywords

landslide / improved Kalman filter / triggering factors / displacement prediction

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