Uncertainty in solid precipitation and snow depth prediction for Siberia using the Noah and Noah-MP land surface models

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the uncertainties associated with land surface processes in an ensemble predication context. Specifically, we compare the uncertainties produced by a coupled atmosphere–land modeling system with two different land surface models, the Noah-MP land surface model (LSM) and the Noah LSM, by using the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (MLEF) data assimilation system as a platform for ensemble prediction. We carried out 24-hour prediction simulations in Siberia with 32 ensemble members beginning at 00:00 UTC on 5 March 2013. We then compared the model prediction uncertainty of snow depth and solid precipitation with observation-based research products and evaluated the standard deviation of the ensemble spread. The prediction skill and ensemble spread exhibited high positive correlation for both LSMs, indicating a realistic uncertainty estimation. The inclusion of a multiple snow-layer model in the Noah-MP LSM was beneficial for reducing the uncertainties of snow depth and snow depth change compared to the Noah LSM, but the uncertainty in daily solid precipitation showed minimal difference between the two LSMs. The impact of LSM choice in reducing temperature uncertainty was limited to surface layers of the atmosphere. In summary, we found that the more sophisticated Noah-MP LSM reduces uncertainties associated with land surface processes compared to the Noah LSM. Thus, using prediction models with improved skill implies improved predictability and greater certainty of prediction.

Keywords

ensemble simulation / land-atmosphere interaction / ensemble spread / vertical temperature / snow prediction

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Acknowledgments

We thank Prof. Steven R. Fassnacht and two anonymous reviewers for their contributions to improving the first draft of this article. We declare no conflicts of interest and no financial disclosure. Parts of this study were supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) (No. 16K00581), and a Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research (No. 25550022). The second author acknowledges partial support from the Office of Naval Research under contract N000149169192040.

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