Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

Abstract

Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (−1.71 × 10⁶ t) and maize (8.53 × 10⁶ t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 × 10⁶ t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

Keywords

EPIC model / crop production / climate trends / scenario designs / crop distribution

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41571170 and 41601562), the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2014CB954301), the 111 project “Hazard and Risk Science Base at Beijing Normal University” under Grant B08008, Ministry of Education and State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs of China, and the Project of State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology.

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