Modeling potential scenarios of the Tangjiashan Lake outburst and risk assessment in the downstream valley

Abstract

This research is devoted to Tangjiashan Lake, a quake landslide-dammed lake, situated in Sichuan Province, China, which was formed by a landslide triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake on 12 May 2008. A STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Russia was applied to simulate the process of two flood scenarios: 1, lake dam outbreak, and 2, dam overtopping. An artificial dam outbreak was made after the earthquake to lower the water level of the lake in 2008, which led to a great flood with a maximum water discharge of more than 6400 m³/s. The negative impact of the flood was reduced by a timely evacuation of the population. Flood hazards still remain in the event of new landslides into the lake and lake dam overtopping (Scenario 2), in which case a maximum water discharge at the dam crest would reach 5000 m³/s, placing the population of Shabacun and Shilingzi villages in the zone of flood impact.

Keywords

Tangjiashan Lake / landslide-dammed lake outburst / hydrodynamic modeling / risk assessment

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Acknowledgements

The study was partially supported by the Science and Technology Support Project of Sichuan Province (No. 2015SZ0214), by the International Cooperation Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (No. 2009DFR20620), and by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) Research Project Nos. 14-05-00768 and 15-05-06894.

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