Simple statistical models for relating river discharge with precipitation and air temperature—Case study of River Vouga (Portugal)

Abstract

Simple statistical models were developed to relate available meteorological data with daily river discharge (RD) for rivers not influenced by melting of ice and snow. In a case study of the Vouga River (Portugal), the RD could be determined by a linear combination of the recent (P_R) and non-recent (P_NR) atmospheric precipitation history. It was found that a simple linear model including only P_R and P_NR cannot account for low RD. The model was improved by including non-linear terms of precipitation that accounted for the water loss. Additional improvement of the models was possible by including average monthly air temperature (T). The best model was robust when up to 60% of the original data were randomly removed. The advantage is the simplicity of the models, which take into account only P_R, P_NR and T. These models can provide a useful tool for RD estimation from current meteorological data.

Keywords

multiple regression / atmospheric precipitation / river discharge / runoff / Aveiro Lagoon

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Acknowledgements

This research was partially supported by the Strategic Funding UID/Multi/04423/2013 through national funds provided by FCT – Foundation for Science and Technology and European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), in the framework of the programme PT2020. T. Stoichev is grateful to FCT for his fellowship (SFRH/BPD/88675/2012), co-financed by Programa Operacional Potencial Humano (POPH) / Fundo Social Europeu (FSE). J. Espinha Marques and R. Moura acknowledge the funding provided by the Institute of Earth Sciences (ICT), under contract with FCT.

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