A statistical model to predict total column ozone in Peninsular Malaysia

Abstract

This study aims to predict monthly columnar ozone in Peninsular Malaysia based on concentrations of several atmospheric gases. Data pertaining to five atmospheric gases (CO₂, O₃, CH₄, NO₂, and H₂O vapor) were retrieved by satellite scanning imaging absorption spectrometry for atmospheric chartography from 2003 to 2008 and used to develop a model to predict columnar ozone in Peninsular Malaysia. Analyses of the northeast monsoon (NEM) and the southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons were conducted separately. Based on the Pearson correlation matrices, columnar ozone was negatively correlated with H₂O vapor but positively correlated with CO₂ and NO₂ during both the NEM and SWM seasons from 2003 to 2008. This result was expected because NO₂ is a precursor of ozone. Therefore, an increase in columnar ozone concentration is associated with an increase in NO₂ but a decrease in H₂O vapor. In the NEM season, columnar ozone was negatively correlated with H₂O (−0.847), NO₂ (0.754), and CO₂ (0.477); columnar ozone was also negatively but weakly correlated with CH₄ (−0.035). In the SWM season, columnar ozone was highly positively correlated with NO₂ (0.855), CO₂ (0.572), and CH₄ (0.321) and also highly negatively correlated with H₂O (−0.832). Both multiple regression and principal component analyses were used to predict the columnar ozone value in Peninsular Malaysia. We obtained the best-fitting regression equations for the columnar ozone data using four independent variables. Our results show approximately the same R value (≈ 0.83) for both the NEM and SWM seasons.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

ozone / SCIAMACHY / principal component analysis / Peninsular Malaysia

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