Modeling the rice phenology and production in China with SIMRIW: sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation

Abstract

Crop models are robust tools for simulating the impact of climate change on rice development and production, but are usually designed for specific stations and varieties. This study focuses on a more adaptable model called Simulation Model for Rice-Weather Relations (SIMRIW). The model was calibrated and validated in major rice production regions over China, and the parameters that most affect the model’s output were determined in sensitivity analyses. These sensitive parameters were estimated in different ecological zones. The simulated results of single and double rice cropping systems in different ecological zones were then compared. The accuracy of SIMRIW was found to depend on a few crucial parameters. Using optimized parameters, SIMRIW properly simulated the rice phenology and yield in single and double cropping systems in different ecological zones. Some of the parameters were largely dependent on ecological zone and rice type, and may reflect the different climate conditions and rice varieties among ecological zones.

Keywords

rice / phenology / parameter optimization / SIMRIW / simulation

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2010CB950902) and the strategic pilot scientific projects of the Chinese Academy of Science (No. XDA05090308), China. The phenological and climate data are taken from the Chinese Meteorological Administration.

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2014 Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg