The use of evidential belief functions for mineral potential mapping in the Nanling belt, South China

Abstract

In this study, the evidential belief functions (EBFs) were applied for mapping tungsten polymetallic potential in the Nanling belt, South China. Seven evidential layers (e.g., geological, geochemical, and geophysical) related to tungsten polymetallic deposits were extracted from a multi-source geospatial database. The relationships between evidential layers and the target deposits were quantified using EBFs model. Four EBF maps (belief map, disbelief map, uncertainty map, and plausibility map) are generated by integrating seven evidential layers which provide meaningful interpretations for tungsten polymetallic potential. On the final predictive map, the study area was divided into three target zones of high potential, moderate potential, and low potential areas, among which high potential and moderate potential areas accounted for 17.8% of the total area, containing 81% of the total deposits. To evaluate the success rate accuracy, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curves (AUC) for the belief map were calculated. The area under the curve is 0.81 which indicates that the capability for correctly classifying the areas with existing mineral deposits is satisfactory. The results of this study indicate that the EBFs were effectively used for mapping mineral potential and for managing uncertainties associated with evidential layers.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence / GIS / uncertainty / tungsten polymetallic deposit / ROC curve

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Acknowledgements

This research has been supported by a Special Fund project from the Institute of Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration CAGS, a Program of Integrated Prediction of Mineral Resources in Covered Areas (No.1212011085468), and a research project on “Quantitative models for prediction of strategic mineral resources in China” (No. 201211022) funded by the China Geological Survey. The paper has benefited from the critical reviews and constructive criticisms of three anonymous reviewers, resulting in major improvements and updates.

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