How severe is the modern biotic crisis? ---- A comparison of global change and biotic crisis between Permian-Triassic transition and modern times

Abstract

A comparison of the modern condition with the Permian-Triassic Boundary (PTB) times was made to estimate how severe the modern biotic crisis is. About the global changes, the two periods are correlative in carbon dioxide concentration and carbon isotope negative excursion, UV strengthening, temperature increase, ocean acidification, and weathering enhancement. The following tendencies of biotic crises are also correlative: acceleration of extinction rates accompanied by parabolic curve of extinction with a turning interval representing the critical crisis; decline of the three main ecosystems: reefs, tropical rain forests and marine phytoplankton. It is also interesting to note that certain leading organism in both periods undergo accelerated evolution during the crisis. The comparison shows that the modern crisis is about at the turning point from decline to decimation. The extinction curve is now parabolic, and the extinction rate has been accelerated, but the decimation is not yet in real. This is also justified by the modern situation of the three main ecosystems. Modern biotic decline may worsen into decimation and mass extinction but may also get better and recover to ordinary evolution. Since human activities are the main cause of the deterioration of environments and organisms, mankind should be responsible and able to strive for the recovery of the crisis. For the future of mankind, Homo sapiens may become extinct, i.e., disappear without leaving descendants, or evolve into a new and more advanced species, i.e., disappear but leave descendants. For a better future, mankind should be conscious of the facing danger and act as a whole to save biodiversity and harmonize with the environments.

Keywords

comparison / global change / biotic crisis / Permian-Triassic Boundary (PTB) / modern times

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Acknowledgements

This work is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Program for Innovative Research Team of China (Grant No. 40921062), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40930210, 40872008), and the Ministry of Education of China (NCET-10-0712). Many results of this paper came from fruitful discussions with colleagues of the BGEG Laboratory.

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