Rapid warming in mid-latitude central Asia for the past 100 years

Abstract

Surface air temperature variations during the last 100 years (1901-2003) in mid-latitude central Asia were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The results suggest that temperature variations in four major sub-regions, i.e. the eastern monsoonal area, central Asia, the Mongolian Plateau and the Tarim Basin, respectively, are coherent and characterized by a striking warming trend during the last 100 years. The annual mean temperature increasing rates at each sub-region (representative station) are 0.19°C per decade, 0.16°C per decade, 0.23°C per decade and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. The average annual mean temperature increasing rate of the four sub-regions is 0.18°C per decade, with a greater increasing rate in winter (0.21°C per decade). In Asian mid-latitude areas, surface air temperature increased relatively slowly from the 1900s to 1970s, and it has increased rapidly since 1970s. This pattern of temperature variation differs from that in the other areas of China. Notably, there was no obvious warming between the 1920s and 1940s, with temperature fluctuating between warming and cooling trends (e.g. 1920s, 1940s, 1960s, 1980s, 1990s). However, the warming trends are of a greater magnitude and their durations are longer than that of the cooling periods, which leads to an overall warming. The amplitude of temperature variations in the study region is also larger than that in eastern China during different periods.

Keywords

arid / central Asia / temperature variation / warming trend

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Acknowledgements

This research work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Innovation Team Project (Grant No. 40421101), the NSFC Outstanding Young Scholars Project (No. 40125001), and the National Key Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology (2002CB714004). It was also funded by the Ten Talents Projects, Gansu Provincial Meteorological Bureau.

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