Immediate impacts of the Wenchuan Earthquake on the prices and productions of grain and pork products

Xiangzheng DENG, Quansheng GE, Zhigang XU, Shaoqiang WANG, Hongbo SU, Qunou JIANG, Jifu DU, Yingzhi LIN

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Front. Earth Sci. ›› DOI: 10.1007/s11707-009-0007-7
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Immediate impacts of the Wenchuan Earthquake on the prices and productions of grain and pork products

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Abstract

Based on field survey and statistical analysis, the immediate impacts of the Wenchuan Earthquake happened on May 12, 2008, are evaluated from two aspects, i.e., the influence on the prices and yields of grain and pork products in the local region and that on China. Wenchuan Earthquake, undoubtedly, has some negative effects on the local agricultural yields in Sichuan Province. It has caused immediate impacts on the grain and livestock breeding industry in the earthquake worst-hit counties. For example, due to the earthquake, the grain yields in Sichuan Province will decreased more than 0.4% and the pork productions decrease 5% at least. Thus, prices of grain and pork products are likely to rise in local mountainous areas over a short term. Our studying results that the disaster rate, the hazard rate and the complete loss rate of grain productions are 18%, 10% and 6% respectively in the earthquake worst-hit counties, while the disaster rate in the eastern plain areas even reach to 30%-49%. Even so, the results of model analysis for sample survey indicated that Wenchuan Earthquake has caused only marginal impacts on agricultural production, does not heavily hurt the stability of the prices and yields of grain and pork products at the national level. In other words, Wenchuan Earthquake had not affected the overall situation of national agricultural production. It is estimated that the reduction rate of national grain yield is as low as 0.006%, and the price changes of grain and pork products are no more than 0.5% and 2.2% respectively.

Keywords

Wenchuan Earthquake / agricultural production / grain and pork products / Sichuan Province

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Xiangzheng DENG, Quansheng GE, Zhigang XU, Shaoqiang WANG, Hongbo SU, Qunou JIANG, Jifu DU, Yingzhi LIN. Immediate impacts of the Wenchuan Earthquake on the prices and productions of grain and pork products. Front Earth Sci Chin, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-009-0007-7

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Rapid Response Project of Wenchuan Earthquake and National Key Technology R&D Program (Nos. 2006BAC08B02,2006BAC08B06) from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, by the National Scientific Foundation of China (Nos. 70503025;70873118) and by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos. KZCX2-YW-305-2,KSCX2-YW-N-039,KZCX2-YW-326-1).

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2014 Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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