Analysis of supply–demand optimization and adjustment in urban center planning based on rail transit accessibility potential

Abstract

Urban centers, as core zones for development, are often defined more by functional concepts than explicit boundaries. This ambiguity complicates policy formulation and results in a gap between planning objectives and actual development. Existing studies primarily utilize multi-source data to delineate the actual functional scope of urban centers. However, relying solely on current situation analysis lacks the forward-looking ‘spatial potential’ dimension, thus limiting the effective evaluation and optimization of planning, especially for TOD-based urban centers. Therefore, spatial potential is introduced as a critical intermediary to link and compare planning intentions with actual outcomes. Taking Wujiaochang subcenter in Shanghai as a case study, this study proposes a ‘Planned-Actual-Potential’ (P-A-P) multi-dimensional analysis framework. The differences between these three scopes are compared to derive mismatches between planned supply and actual demand. It is found that due to market forces, the Actual Scope is partially beyond the Planned Scope, while some potential parcels lack corresponding planning support, leading to resource and functional mismatches. Finally, practical suggestions are proposed for planning and policy optimization, including detecting and supporting the potential, yet unplanned, parcels.

Keywords

Urban structure / Urban center / Urban Network Analysis (UNA) / Plan evaluation / Urban planning management / Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)

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