Predictive modeling of urbanization in Oran, Algeria: a spatial analysis of driving factors and land cover change using land change modeler and logistic regression

Abstract

Urbanization is a global phenomenon with critical challenges for land use management and ecosystem conservation. This work examines urbanization dynamics and their effects on land cover categories, emphasizing the importance of understanding these processes for effective urban management and planning. The study focuses on the peri-urban areas of the second largest Algerian metropolis Oran, specifically examining the south and west peripheries along two major road axes, which have witnessed significant land use changes over the past three decades. With an AUC accuracy of 0.9, the application of integrated Land Change Modeler (LCM) and Logistic Regression analysis revealed a notable increase in urban areas in the periphery of Oran between 1998 and 2019, resulting in a 4340.97-hectare expansion of the urban area. Modeling projections indicate that this trend will continue with the urban area more than doubling from 2019 to 2030, with an expected 11,031-hectare for the urban category by 2030. These results highlight a growing urban sprawl, accompanied by a decline in agricultural areas, forest cover, and Ramsar-designated wetlands, which play a critical role in sustaining regional biodiversity. Furthermore, the analysis identifies distance to roads and proximity to urban settlements as key drivers influencing urban growth in the study area. These findings emphasize the need for a more effective urban planning policy and enforcement mechanisms to balance urban growth and with ecological preservation and agricultural sustainability. This research contributes to a better understanding of the complex land use and land cover patterns in North African contexts and offers insights to local and regional stakeholders developing reliable land management strategies in rapidly urbanizing regions.

Keywords

Land use policy / Land Change Modeler / Urban planning / Land use Land cover / Algeria

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