Predicting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using a PC-LSTM-RNN model in urban profiling areas

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is significant for measuring the strength of national and global economies in urban profiling areas. GDP is significant because it provides information on the size and performance of an economy. The real GDP growth rate is frequently used to indicate the economy’s health. This paper proposes a new model called Pearson Correlation-Long Short-Term Memory-Recurrent Neural Network (PC-LSTM-RNN) for predicting GDP in urban profiling areas. Pearson correlation is used to select the important features strongly correlated with the target feature. This study employs two separate datasets, denoted as Dataset A and Dataset B. Dataset A comprises 227 instances and 20 features, with 70% utilized for training and 30% for testing purposes. On the other hand, Dataset B consists of 61 instances and 4 features, encompassing historical GDP growth data for India from 1961 to 2021. To enhance GDP prediction performance, we implement a parameter transfer approach, fine-tuning the parameters learned from Dataset A on Dataset B. Moreover, in this study, a preprocessing stage that includes median imputation and data normalization is performed. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Median Absolute Error, and determination coefficient (R²) evaluation metrics are utilized in this study to demonstrate the performance of the proposed model. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed model gave better results than other regression models used in this study. Also, the results show that the proposed model achieved the highest results for R², with 99.99%. This paper addresses a critical research gap in the domain of GDP prediction through artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. While acknowledging the widespread application of such algorithms in forecasting GDP, the proposed model introduces distinctive advantages over existing approaches. Using PC-LSTM-RNN which achieves high R² with minimum error rates.