Insights into the potential of potato production across Europe

Abstract

Europe is an important potato producer, showing a strong decline in areas and increases in yield over the past decades, but with large regional differences. This study aims to characterise current European potato production by analysing yields, revealing yield gaps (Yg), and assessing key factors that explain actual (Ya) and potential yields (Yw, for rainfed systems; Yp, for irrigated systems). We selected 13 key potato producing countries, jointly accounting for 90​% of the European potato area. Local data were used to simulate Yw and Yp, while Ya was retrieved from sub-national statistics. Then, we analysed main factors affecting yields using boundary line analysis on nitrogen input and crop water availability. Results showed that European potato production on current acreage can increase by 55​% when yields would increase to 80​% of their potential. The largest potential production gains featured in eastern Europe (59​% Yg, 59​% of potato area), thereafter western Europe (32​% Yg, 25​% of potato area), and smallest gains in northern and southern Europe (43​% and 45​% Yg, with relatively small acreages of 9​% and 6​%, respectively). Our analysis revealed that nitrogen input was a limiting factor in eastern Europe, while we found substantial overuse in some western European countries. Under rainfed conditions, water was the main limiting factor in relatively few potato cultivation areas. In irrigated areas, e.g. in southern Europe, irrigation water requirements to approach Yp are large, which becomes increasingly challenging. Insights from this study can be used to guide future development and innovation in potato cultivation across Europe.

Keywords

Crop modelling / Europe / Nitrogen input / Potato / Water requirement / Yield gap analysis

Abbreviations

CWA crop water availability (evapotranspiration)

CZ climate zone

DM dry matter

FM fresh matter

GYGA Global Yield Gap Atlas

IE_acc internal nutrient use efficiency at maximum accumulation

IE_dil internal nutrient use efficiency at maximum dilution

IE_med medium internal nutrient use efficiency

NUE nutrient use efficiency

relYg relative yield gap

RWS reference weather station

SMU soil map unit

STU Soil Type Unit

TSUM1 thermal time requirement from emergence to tuber initiation

TSUM2 thermal time requirement from tuber initiation to maturity

TSUMEM thermal time requirement from planting to emergence

Ya actual yield

Ya_ir actual yield irrigated water regime

Ya_rf actual yield rainfed water regime

Yg yield gap

Yp potential yield

Yw water-limited potential yield

WLI water limitation index

Availability of data and materials

All area, yield (Ya, Yg, Yp, and Yw), CWA, and WLI data are available at www.yieldgap.org.

Author's contributions

M.P. L. and S.A.: Conceptualization, writing, and reviewing; I.K.A., H.B, D.B.M., and J.I.R.G..: Writing, validation, and resources; E.H.G. and O.K.: Writing, methodology, and investigation; O.K., G.L., N.O., B.P., C.T., and K.Z.: Editing, validation, and resources; M.K.I.: Writing and conceptualization.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

We would like to acknowledge Herman Berghuijs and Allard de Wit (Wageningen University & Research, the Netherlands), Lars Bødker (SEGES Innovation, Denmark), Michel Martin (ARVALIS - Institut du vegetal, France), Gheorghe Olteanu (National Institute of Research and Development for Potato and Sugar Beet, Romania), Frederick Stoddard (University of Helsinki, Finland), and Kairsty Topp (Scotland's Rural College, United Kingdom) for their contributions to the collection of local agronomic data. Part of this work has been funded by the Spanish project PID2023-150406OR-C21.

Appendix A. Supplementary data

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crope.2025.03.002.