Coupling coordination degree and spatiotemporal dynamics: diagnosing the Nile Delta urban ecosystem and socioeconomic lag

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has profoundly altered socioeconomic–ecological interactions, particularly within environmentally sensitive deltaic systems. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal evolution of socioeconomic–ecological coordination in the Nile Delta, Egypt, from 2010 to 2023, using the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Multi-source remote sensing data processed through Google Earth Engine (GEE) were used to construct consistent socioeconomic and environmental indicators, while the entropy weight method (EWM) was applied to determine objective indicator weights. The results reveal a nonlinear temporal coordination trajectory, with the average CCD declining from 0.72 in 2010 to a low of 0.54 in 2015, followed by a limited recovery to 0.55 in 2020 and a stronger recovery to 0.63 in 2023. Furthermore, the dominant constraint shifted from ecological lag in 2010 to socioeconomic lag during the 2020–2023 period, indicating that improvements in environmental conditions were not accompanied by comparable socioeconomic advancement. Spatially, the Delta shifted from a polarized center–periphery pattern toward greater spatial homogeneity at moderate coordination levels, although significant spatial dependence persisted and low–low clusters expanded along the northern coastal fringe. These findings demonstrate how dominant constraints and spatial configurations of socioeconomic–ecological coordination can change over time within a highly dynamic delta system. By extending CCD-based assessment to an underrepresented African deltaic context, this study advances the understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of socioeconomic–ecological coupling under environmental change.

Keywords

coupling coordination degree (CCD) / spatiotemporal dynamics / socioeconomic lag / urban-ecological system / remote sensing / google earth engine (GEE) / entropy weight method (EWM) / Nile Delta

References

[1] Nosair A M, Samra R E-S, Hassan R, et al. (2026) Groundwater sustainability challenges in urban deltas: A DRASTIC-GIS and hydrogeophysical approach for assessing the Nile Delta aquifer for sustainable management. J Contam Hydrol 277: 104823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconhyd.2025.104823.

[2] Zhang D, Chen Y (2021) Evaluation on urban environmental sustainability and coupling coordination among its dimensions: A case study of Shandong Province, China. Sustain Cities Soc 75: 103351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103351.

[3] Day J W, Agboola J, Chen Z, et al. (2016) Approaches to defining deltaic sustainability in the 21st century. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 183: 275-291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.06.018.

[4] Peng Y, Welden N, Renaud F G (2023) A framework for integrating ecosystem services indicators into vulnerability and risk assessments of deltaic social-ecological systems. J Environ Manage 326: 116682. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116682.

[5] Wesselink A, Fritsch O, Paavola J (2020) Earth system governance for transformation towards sustainable deltas: What does research into socio-eco-technological systems tell us? Earth Syst Gov 4: 100062. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esg.2020.100062.

[6] Zhang S, Huang C, Li X, et al. (2024) The spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of the coupling coordination of new-type urbanization and ecosystem services value in the Yellow River Basin. Ecol Indic 166: 112300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112300.

[7] Radwan T M, Blackburn G A, Whyatt J D, et al. (2019) Dramatic Loss of Agricultural Land Due to Urban Expansion Threatens Food Security in the Nile Delta, Egypt. Remote Sens 11: 332. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11030332.

[8] Wang Y, Zhang Y, Dai J, et al. (2025) Regional coupling coordination of water resources, economy, and ecology in the Yangtze River Delta: Insights for sustainable development. Desalination Water Treat 322: 101114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dwt.2025.101114.

[9] ElKotby M R, Sarhan T A, El-Gamal M, et al. (2024) Evaluation of coastal risks to Sea level rise: Case study of Nile Delta Coast. Reg Stud Mar Sci 78: 103791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2024.103791.

[10] Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in Egypt: Land and Water Resources-Smart Farming-Livestock, Fishery, and Aquaculture. (2020) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41629-4.

[11] Yan S, Zhang R, Liu Y, et al. (2025) Interpreting conflicting sustainability indicators: The paradox of coupling and coordination in Hainan’s urban-ecological system. Environ Sustain Indic 28: 100940. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2025.100940.

[12] Acquaviva M L, Murino T, Sassanelli C (2026) A dynamic social-life cycle assessment based framework for social risk assessment. Sustain Prod Consum 65: 60-84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2026.03.007.

[13] Cremin E, O’Connor J, Banerjee S, et al. (2023) Aligning the Global Delta Risk Index with SDG and SFDRR global frameworks to assess risk to socio-ecological systems in river deltas. Sustain Sci 18: 1871-1891. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-023-01295-3.

[14] Mondal I, Maity P, Bandyopadhyay J, et al. (2026) Soil moisture retrieval and ecohydrological assessment for sundarbans delta using multi-temporal Sentinel-1 SAR. Phys Chem Earth Parts ABC 142: 104244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2025.104244.

[15] Peng Y, Welden N A, Renaud F G (2025) Ecosystem-based adaptation strategies to multi-hazard risk reduction and policy implications in the Pearl River and Yangtze River deltas, China. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 116: 105053. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105053.

[16] Grijelmo M, Etxebarria M, Barona A, et al. (2026) Sustainable Development Goals at regional level: Case study for enhancing performance assessment. Environ Dev 57: 101355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101355.

[17] Marra M (2025) Bridging the gaps in sustainability assessment: A systematic literature review, 2014-2023. Eval Program Plann 110: 102557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2025.102557.

[18] Urban and Transit Planning: A Culmination of Selected Research Papers from IEREK Conferences on Urban Planning, Architecture and Green Urbanism, Italy and Netherlands (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-17308-1.

[19] Yan J, Xue Y, Wu H, et al. (2023) Evaluation of sustainable development of the Bohai Sea Rim based on integrated land-sea management: a multi-system coupling and coordination study at coastal, provincial, and city level. Front Mar Sci 10: 1235783. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1235783.

[20] Fouad S S, Heggy E, Abotalib A Z, et al. (2022) Landscape-based regeneration of the Nile Delta’s waterways in support of water conservation and environmental protection. Ecol Indic 145: 109660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109660.

[21] Hisham M A, Bakr S E Y, Elshahed F M S E (2025) A tailored model to measure the resilience of north coastal communities at risk in Nile Delta. HBRC J 21: 99-126. https://doi.org/10.1080/16874048.2025.2454713.

[22] Batisha A F (2015) Implementing fuzzy decision making technique in analyzing the Nile Delta resilience to climate change. Alex Eng J 54: 1043-1056. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2015.05.019.

[23] Zhang Y, Wei T, Tian W, et al. (2022) Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Driving Mechanism of Coupling Coordination between New-Type Urbanization and Ecological Environment in China. Sustain Switz 14. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811780.

[24] Wu B, Quan Q, Yang S, et al. (2023) A social-ecological coupling model for evaluating the human-water relationship in basins within the Budyko framework. J Hydrol 619. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129361.

[25] Abd-Elmabod S K, Fitch A C, Zhang Z, et al. (2019) Rapid urbanisation threatens fertile agricultural land and soil carbon in the Nile delta. J Environ Manage 252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109668.

[26] Abdelsalam K M, El-Zokm G M, El-Geziry T M, et al. (2026) Sustainable management of the Egyptian Nile Delta-Mediterranean coast: bibliometric and strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats analyses of emerging trends and prospects. Aquat Sci 88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-026-01332-0.

[27] Zhou X, Chen X, Wang T, et al. (2025) Towards low-carbon and resilient cities: coordinated development and its driving factors in 29 Chinese cities. Sustain Cities Soc 131: 106790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.106790.

[28] Li L, Fan Z, Feng W, et al. (2022) Coupling coordination degree spatial analysis and driving factor between socio-economic and eco-environment in northern China. Ecol Indic 135: 108555. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108555.

[29] Liu Y, Yang L, Jiang W (2020) Coupling coordination and spatiotemporal dynamic evolution between social economy and water environmental quality - A case study from Nansi Lake catchment, China. Ecol Indic 119: 106870. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106870.

[30] Sun P, Song W, Xiu C, et al. (2013) Non-coordination in China’s urbanization: Assessment and affecting factors. Chin Geogr Sci 23: 729-739. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-013-0634-5.

[31] Wei G, Zhang W, Bi M, et al. (2024) Trade-offs and synergies pattern evolution of ecosystem structure-resilience-activity-services (SRAS) in the Belt and Road Initiative region. Resour Conserv Recycl 211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107883.

[32] Chu Z, Ge Q, Zhang L (2025) Research on the Spatial Correlation Pattern of Sustainable Development of Cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China, Based on the Dynamic Coupling Perspective of “Ecology-Economy.” Systems 13: 533. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13070533.

[33] Abou El-Magd I, Zakzouk M, Ali E M, et al. (2024) Exploring the potentiality of InSAR data to estimate land subsidence of the Nile Delta. Egypt. J Remote Sens Space Sci 27: 342-355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2024.03.009.

[34] Zhang Q, Shen J, Sun F (2021) Spatiotemporal differentiation of coupling coordination degree between economic development and water environment and its influencing factors using GWR in China’s province. Ecol Model 462: 109794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109794.

[35] Tan Y, Zhou Y, Zhou H, et al. (2025) Analysis of the coordinated development and influencing factors between urban population and environment: A case study of 35 metropolises in China. Sustain. Cities Soc 121: 106160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.106160.

[36] Wang X, Zhao H, Qian J, et al. (2024) Sustainable Land Use Diagnosis Based on the Perspective of Coupling Socioeconomy and Ecology in the Xiongan New Area, China. Land 13: 92. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13010092.

[37] Manna S, Bartoli M, Mazzocchi C (2026) Harmonizing socioeconomic and environmental factors in lake ecosystems: The case of Lake Iseo. Environ Sustain Indic 30: 101222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101222.

[38] Abd El-Hamid H T (2020) Geospatial Analyses for Assessing the Driving Forces of Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics Around the Nile Delta Branches, Egypt. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 48: 1661-1674. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-020-01189-2.

[39] Verburg P H, Crossman N D, Ellis E C, et al. (2015) Land system science and sustainable development of the earth system: A global land project perspective. Anthropocene 12: 29-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2015.09.004.

[40] Ellis E C, Pascual U, Mertz O (2019) Ecosystem services and nature’s contribution to people: negotiating diverse values and trade-offs in land systems. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 38: 86-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2019.05.001.

[41] Awadh-Allah D M, Ammar H M, ElNaga S A, et al. (2025) Impact of Sea Level Rise on Sustainable Regional Land Use of the Nile Delta. Environ Ecol Res 13: 95-109. https://doi.org/10.13189/eer.2025.130109.

[42] Polychronaki M, Petropoulos G P, Evelpidou N (2026) Use of geoinformation technologies to study climate risk and socio-economic vulnerability in coastal Arctic regions: state of the art, challenges & future perspectives. Remote Sens Appl Soc Environ 41: 101917. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2026.101917.

[43] Ibrahim M M, Shaban M, El-Karim E A, et al. (2025) Multi-criteria data-driven framework for drainage water reuse sustainability. Ain Shams Eng J 16: 103782. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2025.103782.

[44] Stanley J-D, Clemente P L (2017) Increased Land Subsidence and Sea-Level Rise Are Submerging Egypt’s Nile Delta Coastal Margin. GSA Today: 4-11. https://doi.org/10.1130/GSATG312A.1.

[45] Zhang C, Li M, Zhao X, et al. (2026) Measurement and prediction of water-energy-food-economy-ecology coupling coordination degree in Shandong Province, China. Ecol Model 517: 111600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111600.

[46] Chu M, Tian D, Zhang Y, et al. (2026) Coupling mechanisms and optimization of urban green space equity and income distribution based on multi-source big data: A case study of beijing. Trees For People 23: 101136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2025.101136.

[47] Gao C, Cao M, Wen Y, et al. (2023) Coupling and interaction between science and technology finance and green development: Based on coupling coordination degree model and panel vector autoregression model. Front Environ Sci 11: 1090998. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1090998.

[48] Liu C, Sun W, Li P (2022) Characteristics of spatiotemporal variations in coupling coordination between integrated carbon emission and sequestration index: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta, China. Ecol Indic 135: 108520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108520.

[49] Wang S, Kong W, Ren L, et al. (2021) Research on misuses and modification of coupling coordination degree model in China. J Nat Resour 36: 793. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20210319.

[50] Han H, Li H (2020) Coupling Coordination Evaluation between Population and Land Urbanization in Ha-Chang Urban Agglomeration. Sustainability 12: 357. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12010357.

[51] Song Y, Gao Y, Zhang S, et al. (2024) Research on the Coupling Coordination and Driving Mechanisms of New-Type Urbanization and the Ecological Environment in China’s Yangtze River Delta. Sustainability 16: 5308. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16135308.

[52] Fang X, Shi X, Phillips T K, et al. (2021) The Coupling Coordinated Development of Urban Environment Towards Sustainable Urbanization: An Empirical Study of Shandong Peninsula, China. Ecol Indic 129: 107864. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107864.

[53] World Bank (2021) Accelerating the transformation of Egypt’s agri-food system: Impact of investments in selected value chains.

[54] Wang Q, Chen L, Wang P, et al. (2023) Evolution of County Socio-Ecological Systems in Nature Reserves in Western China Over the Past 30 Years. Nat Resour Res 32: 1809-1822. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-023-10211-6.

[55] Anton Murzin Y L (2022) Spatial-temporal evolution of the coupling state of agricultural socio-ecologo-economic system in North China Plain. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSAMI.2022.126801.

[56] Yao L, Halike A, Wei Q, et al. (2022) Research on Coupling and Coordination of Agro-Ecological and Agricultural Economic Systems in the Ebinur Lake Basin. Sustainability 14: 10327. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141610327.

[57] Shi T, Yang S, Zhang W, et al. (2020) Coupling coordination degree measurement and spatiotemporal heterogeneity between economic development and ecological environment ---- Empirical evidence from tropical and subtropical regions of China. J Clean Prod 244: 118739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118739.

[58] Weng Q, Lian H, Qin Q (2022) Spatial disparities of the coupling coordinated development among the economy, environment and society across China’s regions. Ecol Indic 143: 109364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109364.

[59] Turner B L I, Lambin E F, Reenberg A (2007) The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proc Natl Acad Sci U. S. A. 104: 20666-20671. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0704119104.

[60] Newig J, Challies E D, Cotta B, et al. (2020) Governing global telecoupling toward environmental sustainability. Ecol Soc 25: 1-17. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11844-250421.

[61] Meyfroidt P, Roy Chowdhury R, Bremond A C de, et al. (2018) Middle-range theories of land system change. Glob. Environ. Change 53: 52-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.006.

[62] Wu J (Jingle) (2019) Linking landscape, land system and design approaches to achieve sustainability. J Land Use Sci 14: 173-189. https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2019.1602677.

[63] Müller D, Sun Z, Vongvisouk T, et al. (2014) Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change. Glob. Environ. Change 28: 75-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.003.

[64] Meyfroidt P, Bremond A C de, Ryan C M, et al. (2022) Ten facts about land systems for sustainability. Proc Natl Acad Sci U. S. A. 119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2109217118.

[65] Sun X, Zhang Z (2021) Coupling and Coordination Level of the Population, Land, Economy, Ecology and Society in the Process of Urbanization: Measurement and Spatial Differentiation. Sustainability 13: 3171. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063171.

[66] Wu S, Zhang H, Zhu H, et al. (2026) Research on the coupling coordination between transport accessibility and socio-economic development in plateau mountainous cities: a case study of Qujing City. Front Sustain Cities 8: 1810595. https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2026.1810595.

[67] Chen X, Liu X (2023) Geographical Detection Analysis and Spatiotemporal Disparity Characteristics of the Coupling Coordination Development between Urbanization and the Eco-Environment. Sustainability 15: 3931. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15053931.

[68] Dahab H M, Qutb S M, Shawky K A, et al. (2025) Urban Climate Change Resilience Framework as a guide to achieve resilience of the heritage sector, Rashid-New Rashid.