A stochastic process model for resistance deterioration of aging bridges

Abstract

The serviceability and safety level of bridges often deteriorates due to the environmental or operational conditions. A stochastic deterioration model is of essential importance for describing the time-variation of bridge performance (e.g., stiffness and strength), and for use in the estimate of bridge reliability under a probabilistic framework. In this context, the Gamma process has been widely used to model the resistance deterioration of aging bridges, yet suffers from the deficiency that the statistical characteristics of the process (namely mean value, variance and autocorrelation) are not mutually independent. This paper presents a new stochastic model for bridge resistance deterioration. As a modified version of the Gamma process-based one, the proposed model includes a new parameter that can release the dependence of the process autocorrelation and variance on the mean value. The impact of the new deterioration model on the time-dependent reliability of aging bridges is studied.