2026-01-13 2026, Volume 9 Issue 1

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  • research-article
    Felix Bachofer, Zhiyuan Wang, Juliane Huth, Christina Eisfelder, Andrea Reimuth, Claudia Kuenzer

    Climate change remains a defining challenge of the twenty-first century, profoundly impacting ecosystems, economies, and human settlements. Among its consequences, the intensification of flood risks in coastal cities poses a critical threat to sustainable development, particularly in the Global South. This study bridges climate change-induced flooding scenarios with urban growth modelling, integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) into the SLEUTH model to simulate future urban trajectories and assess flood exposure under varying climate and socioeconomic conditions. Leveraging Earth observation information products, flood hazard scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and high-resolution (30 m) urban growth projections, this study evaluates coastal, fluvial, and pluvial flood exposure for nine coastal agglomerations with diverse socioeconomic and environmental contexts. Urban growth projections under SSP1/RCP2.6, SSP2/RCP4.5, and SSP5/RCP8.5 scenarios reveal significant variability in urban expansion rates, with four cities projected to expand by over 50% by 2050. Flood exposure assessments for the target year 2050 reveal nuanced spatial and scenario-dependent patterns across all flood types: Surabaya (Indonesia) faces severe coastal flooding (up to 83 km2 under SSP5/RCP8.5), while Guayaquil (Ecuador) and Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) experience extensive risks of fluvial flood exposure, with over 37% of newly developed areas inundated in Guayaquil. Notably, the SSP2/RCP4.5 “Middle of the Road” scenario yields the lowest flood exposure in Khulna (Bangladesh) and Surabaya, whereas SSP1/RCP2.6 and SSP5/RCP8.5 project 30% to over 70% higher exposure in these cities. Disproportionate exposure to inundation in newly urbanized areas, particularly for Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Guayaquil, underscores potential risks associated with rapid and uninformed urbanization into flood prone regions. These findings emphasize the dual role of high radiative forcing climate scenarios and socioeconomic pathways in shaping flood exposure and associated risks, advocating for integrated strategies that combine climate mitigation with proactive, scenario-based urban planning.

  • research-article
    Daniel de Álava, Laura Brum-Bulanti, Hugo Inda

    Since the beginning of the last century, anthropic interventions and activities have intensified on the Atlantic coast of Uruguay, generating important pressures, disturbances and negative impacts. It is the case of a coast characterized by extensive systems of mobile dunes that crossed beach arcs delimited by rocky extremities, lagoons and coastal marshes. From that moment on, a transformation process was triggered that involved the afforestation and fixation of the dunes and their subsequent urbanization and commercialization, which we call anthropogenic driver. With the passage of time, this driver has produced a hardening and shrinking of the coast that, ironically, affects anthropic urban infrastructures, mainly due to the erosive action of waves and the flooding of low-lying areas. This study analyzes the main causes of coastal system dysfunctions that have triggered various problems and conflicts at the socio-ecological level and that position the coast as a zone of environmental conflict. We examine the alterations in sediment recirculation caused by the fixation of dune systems, in particular the bypass between the rocky extremities of the beach arches, and make an estimate of the amount of sediment transported by wind and marine action, as a way to identify sediment inputs and outputs of the coastal system. We found that the erosive process currently observed can be explained by an important deficit of sediment in the aeolian transport from the dune systems. At present, almost all of the dune systems are already fixed and urbanized. Sediment inputs depend on what can be mobilized from the beach and foreshore by longshore littoral drift, where wave action and sea level are beginning to play an increasingly important role. It is expected that if current climatic and anthropic occupation trends continue, erosion will increase in several sectors of Uruguay's coast, with the process of anthropic forcing taking priority over sea level rise due to climatic changes, with significant environmental and therefore socioeconomic and cultural impacts. Future coastal zone management should focus on preserving areas that are exempt or underdeveloped in terms of urban infrastructure and provide space for coastal zone readjustment.

  • research-article
    Emmanuel Yeboah Okyere, John Amoah-Nuamah, Enock Aninakwah

    This study investigates the interconnections between marine resource management, local livelihoods, and governance structures at the Muni-Pomadze Ramsar Site in Ghana. Employing a mixed-methods approach guided by the Social-Ecological Systems (SES) Framework, the study combines qualitative interviews and focus group discussions with quantitative survey data from 302 respondents across three coastal communities. Findings reveal that marine resources, particularly fishing, are central to the socioeconomic fabric of these communities. Livelihood outcomes are significantly influenced by financial, natural, human, social, and physical capital, with financial capital emerging as the strongest predictor of these outcomes. However, challenges such as institutional overlaps, inadequate infrastructure, limited access to credit, and exclusion of women and youth from decision-making constrain sustainable governance. The study emphasizes the necessity for an inclusive, decentralized co-governance framework that combines traditional conservation practices with contemporary regulatory systems. Policy recommendations include the formation of a Multi-Stakeholder Lagoon Management Board, community-based monitoring, microcredit schemes, and investments in cold storage and aquaculture. These findings offer actionable pathways for enhancing ecological resilience and improving the livelihoods of coastal populations.

  • research-article
    I. Alberico, D. Casalbore, R. Dominici, F. Valensise

    Historically, human populations have mainly settled along the coast. In Europe, around 200 million people, almost a third of the total population, live within 50 km of the sea. This high population density, coupled with intense human activity, has played a key role in the degradation of the natural coastal environment. In these vulnerable areas, a serious issue is coastal erosion, driven by natural forces and human actions. Considering these dynamics, proper coastal management requires identifying the adverse factors that could compromise the use of coastal resources for future generations. In this context, the beach's evolution and the potential impact of urban expansion over the last century were examined through a diachronic analysis. To this end, a semi-quantitative approach integrating the Digital Shoreline Analysis System and GIS-based spatial analysis algorithms was implemented. The study focused on the territories of Bagnara Calabra and Favazzina sites in the Calabria Region (southern Italy), which are characterized by long-term urbanisation and ongoing coastal erosion. The study also classified shoreline sectors according to their physical vulnerability, combining indicators of beach width and rate of shoreline change to highlight the most susceptible areas. These results shed light on the interactions between natural processes and human activities that affect the coastline evolution. They provide decision-makers with a valuable tool for implementing sustainable coastal protection and management strategies.

  • review-article
    S. M. Kenneth Wijesinghe, B. G. Hasitha Dilshan Karunarathna, W. K. Maheshika Gayathri Kumarawansha, K. L. A. Avidya Ravishani Liyanage, P. H. M. Shanika Ravihari Pahathkumbura, A. G. Malshi Imasha Rajawardhana, W. M. Nimesha Kalhari Samaranayake, M. I. Fathima Sawmiya, Krishan Sanjaya Wetthasinghe, Amila Sandaruwan Ratnayake

    Marine pollution threatens ocean ecosystems and human health through eutrophication, bioaccumulation, and habitat degradation. This article discusses chemical contaminants, nutrient pollution and eutrophication, marine debris, ocean noise pollution, global and regional hotspots of ocean pollution, the impact of pollution on marine biodiversity, mitigation strategies and global effects, restoration and cleanup efforts, and challenges and future outlooks in marine pollution. The excess nutrient levels disturb ecological balances, cause harmful algal blooms, and threaten biodiversity and coastal economies. While plastic pollution has received widespread attention, marine debris also includes non-plastic materials such as metal, glass, rubber, and textiles. Ocean noise pollution, primarily from shipping, seismic exploration, and military sonar, significantly disrupts marine ecosystems by interfering with the communication, navigation, and behavioral patterns of marine species. The buildup of plastic gyres such as the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is a key contributor to global ocean pollution. Remote polar regions can also show significant accumulation of pollutants due to long-distance marine and atmospheric transportation. Multi-faceted and integrated approaches, such as global regulatory frameworks, technological innovation, waste management improvement, and public engagement, are required to decrease ocean pollution. The growing awareness of marine pollution, especially for plastic debris, has fueled the pick-up trash before it disperses into the open ocean. Meanwhile, ecosystem restoration, ranging from mangrove replanting to coral reef rehabilitation, is crucial in rebuilding degraded marine habitats and promoting resilience to subsequent environmental and climatic pressures.

  • research-article
    Ramzan Pradana Maulsyid, Willdan Aprizal Arifin, Yulius, Taslim Arifin, Anang Dwi Purwanto, Aprizon Putra, Muhammad Ramdhan, Rinny Rahmania, Joko Prihantono, Hendry Frananda, Hadiwijaya L. Salim, Triyatno

    Mangrove ecosystem along the coast of Indonesia has experienced degradation and loss of carbon stocks due to extensive coastal development and land conversion. This study aims to develop a spatial model for estimating Above-Ground Carbon (AGC) stocks in the mangrove forests of Teluknaga and Kosambi in 2019, 2022, and 2025. Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) was classified using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, resulting in five main classes including water bodies, mangrove, vegetation, bareland, and built-up area. Vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, SAVI, and ARVI) were specifically calculated for mangrove areas to construct a linear regression model against the reference AGB values obtained from secondary data. Results indicate that ARVI is the best predictor (R2=0.80; RMSE=40.98). The maximum AGC value recorded was 177.47 MgC ha−1 in 2019, decreasing to 153.36 MgC ha−1 in 2022 and plummeting to 111.62 MgC ha−1 in 2025. This decline is also reflected in the total carbon stock in the study area, which fell from 987,973.4 MgC to 595,583.8 MgC. This is related to the reduction in mangrove area from 368.45 ha in 2019 to 261.16 ha in 2025. Spatially, the conversion of mangrove to bareland and built-up area reached a total of 122.72 ha, with a predominance of conversion to bareland (78.66 ha) and to built-up area (44.06 ha). This study presents novelty through the utilisation of LULC changes as a spatial approach in estimating carbon reserves and provides a scientific basis for the protection of mangrove ecosystems amidst coastal development pressures.

  • research-article
    Yanzhong Yao, Junru Zhou, Changgeng Jia, Pinjie Su, Youtao Song

    Insufficient understanding of coastal natural resources hinders the efforts to reconcile economic development and ecological protection. The dynamics of ecosystem service value (ESV) needs to be assessed for opening opportunities in understanding the ecological consequences of human activities. This study identifies the spatiotemporal patterns of ESV from the “past-present-future” perspective, coupling hotspot analysis, geo-detector and patch-generating land simulation model into the framework of ESV assessment. Land use resources in Liaoning coastal zone over past two decades that are utilized for wetlands (-31.86%), croplands (-11.38%) and grasslands (-4.76%) decreased to different degrees, whereas built-up lands increased by 100.02%. The magnitude of coastal ESVs is 149.41 billion CNY over past two decades average, and has shown constant fluctuations as a consequence of land use changes. The distribution of ESVs evolved towards greater coverage of cold spots and smaller hot spot areas during 2000–2020 year. Watersheds and wetlands with 13.25% and 3.77% of total area contribute 70.37% and 8.29% of total ESVs, respectively, especially in water supply, hydrological regulation, and biodiversity. Compared to 2020 year, the value of ESVs in 2050 year increased to 212.72 and 311.48 billion CNY for economic and ecological (maximize ecosystem service/ecological capacity) scenarios, respectively, whereas decreased to 89.14 billion CNY for baseline scenario. Intense human activities are going to reshape the patterns of ESV generated from coastal natural resources. These findings provide timely and precisely evidence for balancing ecological protection and economic development in the context of Liaoning coastal construction from now on.

  • research-article
    Wilson Machado, Breno Rodrigues, Victor de Freitas, Anderson Rocha, Christiane Duyck, Adan Lino, Olaf Malm, Christian J. Sanders, Matthieu Carré, Alexander Pérez

    The assessment of mercury (Hg) contamination in Peruvian mangrove sediments was conducted across two contrasting environments: the anthropogenically impacted mangrove forest of “Puerto Pizarro” (PP), affected by shrimp aquaculture, mining activities, and urban expansion, and the relatively pristine Mangrove Sanctuary of Tumbes (MS). In PP, Hg concentrations ranged from 291 to 177 ng g⁻1, yielding a Pollution Index (PI) of 1.6 and exceeding the sediment quality guideline defined by the Effect Range Low (ERL; 150 ng g⁻1), indicative of potential Hg toxicity. In contrast, Hg concentrations in MS ranged from 135 to 17 ng g⁻1, remaining below the ERL and within natural background levels reported for Peruvian marine sediments. Using the estimated mean background concentration in MS sediments (70 ng g⁻1), enrichment factors of up to 3.2 were observed in PP sediments. Mercury concentrations in MS exhibited significant positive correlations with fine-grained sediments (silt and clay; r=0.66) and reactive iron phases (r=0.70), reflecting natural geochemical controls on Hg accumulation. Conversely, no significant correlations were detected in PP, suggesting that anthropogenic inputs override sedimentological and geochemical processes. This study provides the first assessment of Hg concentrations in mangrove ecosystems located at the eastern South Pacific distributional limit and highlights the role of mangroves as effective biogeochemical barriers that mitigate Hg transfer to adjacent coastal ecosystems.

  • research-article
    Mariarca D’Aniello, Luca Lämmle, Vinicius Borges Moreira, Ilaria Panero, Archimedes Perez Filho, Carlo Donadio

    Urban beaches are fragile transitional environments increasingly exposed to anthropogenic pressures and natural degradation processes. This study presents for the first time an integrated environmental and morphosedimentary approach of the San Giovanni a Teduccio shoreline, an urban beach located in eastern Naples, Italy, integrating drone imagery, bathymetry, and sediment analysis. UAV-based photogrammetry and bathymetric surveys provided high-resolution spatial data, which were processed using GIS and interpolation tools to construct morphometric and bathymetric models. Surface sediment samples collected along beach transects were analyzed for granulometric composition, grain shape, and microplastic content. Shoreline change analysis revealed a consistent erosional trend, moderately sorted medium to coarse sands, and a high prevalence of anthropogenic debris. Despite urbanization, native psammophilous vegetation persists, playing a crucial role in ecosystem stability. The findings underscore the urgent need for ecologically sound coastal management strategies and offer a replicable framework for analyzing similar urban coastal systems under the pressures of the Anthropocene.

  • research-article
    Arun J. John, Indu G.K, Arunima M. Lal

    This study investigates early anthropogenic environmental impact at the Pattanam archaeological site in Kerala, South India, identified as the ancient port of Muziris, through geochemical analysis of heavy metals, particularly lead (Pb). Sediment samples collected from a 3-m trench were analyzed using XRF, and contamination was assessed using Enrichment Factor (EF), Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo), and Pollution Load Index (PLI). Results reveal significant Pb enrichment between 1.8- and 2.8-m depth, peaking at 2.6 m, aligning with the Early Historic period (200 BCE–400 CE), a time of active Indo-Roman trade. EF and Igeo values confirm that Pb contamination is of anthropogenic origin, likely stemming from local recycling of Roman materials, metallurgical activity, and the importation of goods. A marked decline in Pb levels in the overlying layers reflects the post-Roman decline of Muziris, possibly linked to the 1341 CE flood that reshaped regional trade patterns. This research not only connects South Indian archaeological layers to global Roman-era pollution signals but also contributes to ongoing debates on the onset of the Anthropocene by highlighting early human-induced environmental change.

  • research-article
    Tianyou Li, Yuxin Bi, Yang Hu, Yuanhao Song, Lv Gong, Lin Su, Liming Xue, Xiuzhen Li

    Newly established salt marsh vegetation may exert unexpected effects on sediment dynamics, yet direct high-resolution evidence remains scarce. To address this gap, this study monitored early-stage colonization of Scirpus mariqueter at Chongming Dongtan using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery acquired from July to September 2021.

    Across all monitoring periods, a dynamic thresholding approach using the Green Leaf Index (GLI) enabled high-accuracy classification of vegetated versus unvegetated mudflats, with overall accuracies exceeding 99% and Kappa coefficients above 0.97. This robust classification enabled the identification of newly established vegetation as target areas for erosion analysis, while also ensuring reliable delineation of bare-surface areas for constructing digital elevation models (DEMs). The resulting DEMs achieved a spatial resolution of 5 cm and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.034 m, enabling precise detection of microtopographic changes at the decimeter scale.

    Orthophoto analysis revealed that scour pits observed in September closely mirrored the contour shapes and spatial boundaries of these newly established vegetation areas, with strong spatial congruence in both centroid location and perimeter extent. Statistical analysis showed that the average erosion depth within the newly established vegetation areas reached 12.5±5.2 cm, significantly deeper than the 6.4±5.5 cm observed in the adjacent bare mudflats. These findings suggest that the newly established S. mariqueter areas may have intensified local hydrodynamic processes, thereby enhancing sediment erosion. This indicates that, under natural colonization conditions, newly established vegetation establishment may induce negative geomorphic feedbacks, challenging the conventional assumption that vegetation consistently promotes surface stabilization in tidal wetlands.

  • research-article
    Wei Qiu, Tong Wu, Hua-long Luan, Yinjun Zhou, Chengwei Hu, Jianrong Zhu

    Hengsha Dongtan, with a reclamation area of~106 km2 initiated in 2006, is a key ecological agricultural development zone in Shanghai. However, freshwater intake for agriculture along its northern margin is significantly constrained by saltwater intrusion. Based on three months of field observations and ECOM-si, this study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms of saltwater intrusion under varying guaranteed flow rates and cold front conditions. Results demonstrate that during the mid tide after neap tide (MTAN), seaward water flux decreases by 55%, marking a high-risk period for saltwater intrusion. In contrast, saltwater intrusion is weakest during the mid tide after spring tide (MTAS), which favors freshwater intake. Under extremely dry year conditions, the allowable freshwater intake period at three intake points decreases to 12.9, 6.4, and 2.1 days, respectively. Cold fronts intensify saltwater intrusion through the North Channel (NC), significantly reducing the availability of agricultural freshwater. Salt flux decomposition reveals that landward advective transport driven by strong northerly winds is the dominant mechanism of saltwater intrusion. In addition, the Hengsha Shoal reclamation project, currently under construction with a planned area of about 300km2, is expected to alter regional hydrodynamics. Simulation results under climatological conditions indicate that the project would weaken saltwater spillover (SSO) from the North Branch (NB) and direct saltwater intrusion from the NC, thereby improving freshwater intake conditions at source areas in the South Branch (SB).

  • research-article
    Jaka Putra Rahmajati, Vina Nurul Husna, Yulius Yulius, Taslim Arifin, Hadiwijaya L. Salim, Rinny Rahmania, Aprizon Putra, Muhammad Ramdhan, Anang Dwi Purwanto, August Daulat, Joko Prihantono, Hafidzuddin Fihrin, Farel A. Aditama

    Mangrove deforestation in Indonesia amounts to roughly 18,209 ha per year (18.26 MtCO₂e/year−1). However, spatial and temporal integrative research in eastern Indonesia's coastal areas remains limited. This study aims to analyse mangrove forests' condition and spatio-temporal changes, compute above-ground carbon (AGC) as a basis for sustainable coastal management in Sumbawa Regency and support the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target. This research merges UAV-RGB data (July 2024) and multitemporal PlanetScope imagery (2016 and 2024) to develop a Canopy Height Model (CHM) and calculate the AGC. Land use classification was accomplished using Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA)—Random Forest (RF), while changing trends were assessed using Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation/Simulations (MOLUSCE). AGC at the study site was in the range of 21—168

    MgC.ha-1
    (mean=72.3
    MgC.ha-1
    , total=8,999.9
    MgC
    . The investigation found a change of 37.89 ha of mangrove area to barren and shrubland, resulting in an AGC loss of 2,739.5
    MgC
    . However, there has been an increase in land use and changes in aquaculture and agriculture. This study proposes a novel approach by merging UAV data and time-series satellite images to increase the accuracy of AGC prediction in data-sparse locations. A nature-based Solution (NbS) is advocated as an integrated method for adaptive mangrove restoration and conservation, while still supporting the demands of the local community. This research presents a geographical framework that may be duplicated to create inclusive and adaptable coastal resource management plans and directly contribute to reaching the 2030 NDC targets.