Cyclicity of the seventh cholera pandemic and solar activity

Yuriy Ivanovich Arutyunov; Yu M Lomov; S Yu Vodyanitskaya; V I Prometnoy; Yu I Arutyunov; Yu M Lomov; S Yu Vodyanitskaya; V I Prometnoy

doi:10.17816/EID40566

Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases ›› 2011, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (2) : 32 -36. DOI: 10.17816/EID40566

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Cyclicity of the seventh cholera pandemic and solar activity

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Abstract

During the seventh cholera pandemic, the cyclicity of its manifestations was established, which depended on solar activity. Five cycles with a mean length of 11 years were identified. These are 1958-1969, 1970-1979, 1980-1990, 1991-2001, and 2002 to the present time (2009). The onset of each cycle is timed to the phase of the Sun maximum activity and falls on the first or second year after the year of the maximum solar activity. The emergence of a new pathogenic variant of V. cholerae is timed to the third or fourth year after the maximum. The parameters that enable the onset of a pandemic to be defined are considered.

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the seventh cholera pandemic / cyclicity / solar activity

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Yuriy Ivanovich Arutyunov, Yu M Lomov, S Yu Vodyanitskaya, V I Prometnoy, Yu I Arutyunov, Yu M Lomov, S Yu Vodyanitskaya, V I Prometnoy. Cyclicity of the seventh cholera pandemic and solar activity. Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases, 2011, 16(2): 32-36 DOI:10.17816/EID40566

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