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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering

Front. Environ. Sci. Eng.    2016, Vol. 10 Issue (2) : 276-287
Is there an inverted U-shaped curve? Empirical analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in agrochemicals
Fei LI1,Suocheng DONG1,Fujia LI2,Libiao YANG3,*()
1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2. School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3. Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
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As the largest contributor to water impairment, agriculture-related pollution has attracted the attention of scientists as well as policy makers, and quantitative information is being sought to focus and advance the policy debate. This study applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration, and panel-based dynamic ordinary least squares to investigate the Environmental Kuznets Curve on environmental issues resulting from use of agricultural synthetic fertilizer, pesticide, and film for 31 provincial economies in mainland China from 1989 to 2009. The empirical results indicate a positive long-run co-integrated relationship between the environmental index and real GDP per capita. This relationship takes on the inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve, and the value of the turning point is approximately 10,000–13,000, 85,000–89,000 and over 160,000 CNY, for synthetic fertilizer nitrogen indicator, fertilizer phosphorus indicator and pesticide indicator, respectively. At present, China is subject to tremendous environmental pressure and should assign more importance to special agriculture-related environmental issues.

Keywords Environmental Kuznets Curve      agrochemical      China     
Corresponding Authors: Libiao YANG   
Online First Date: 23 April 2014    Issue Date: 01 February 2016
 Cite this article:   
Libiao YANG,Fei LI,Suocheng DONG, et al. Is there an inverted U-shaped curve? Empirical analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in agrochemicals[J]. Front. Environ. Sci. Eng., 2016, 10(2): 276-287.
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Libiao YANG
Fei LI
Suocheng DONG
Fujia LI
Fig.1  Consumption of agricultural chemical fertilizer (a), pesticide and film (b) from 1989 to 2009 (Source: China Rural Statistical Yearbooks, various years)
indexabbreviation of index
GDP per capita/CNYGDP
gross agricultural output per capita/CNYGAO
nitrogen surplus from synthetic fertilizer per hectare cultivated area/kgNS
phosphorus surplus from synthetic fertilizer per hectare cultivated area/kgPS
agricultural pesticide use per hectare cultivated area/kgAP
agricultural film use per hectare cultivated area/kgAF
Tab.1  Agriculture-related environmental indices and economic indices
LLC a)IPS b)Fisher-ADF c)Fisher-PP
GDPindividual effects???7.68??13.40??3.87???2.80
individual effects and linear trends???8.81???6.82?15.79??18.98
D d) (GDP)individual effects?−2.04** e)?−2.95***112.86***?156.37***
individual effects and linear trends?−1.32*?−1.72**?87.89**?143.22***
GAOindividual effects???2.64???8.20?13.01??13.47
individual effects and linear trends???4.19???3.03?36.03??35.49
D(GAO)individual effects?−3.32***?−5.04***127.30***?272.48***
individual effects and linear trends−10.24***?−7.32***169.21***?216.52***
GDP2individual effects??11.25??15.13??1.17???0.70
individual effects and linear trends???8.86???9.56??5.44??10.03
D(GDP2)individual effects?−1.68**?−1.58**?86.95**?123.93***
individual effects and linear trends?−1.69**?−1.56**?81.39**?131.40***
GAO2individual effects???4.61??10.27??9.70???9.59
individual effects and linear trends???6.55???4.96?26.61??28.68
D(GAO2)individual effects?−3.40***?−4.62***120.10***?249.11***
individual effects and linear trends?−9.68***?−6.85***160.41***?206.32***
NSindividual effects?−7.28***?−2.51?90.27?141.31***
individual effects and linear trends?−2.68**???0.11?60.91??87.34
D(NS)individual effects−15.74***−13.29***291.53***?711.24***
individual effects and linear trends−14.95***−10.20***243.23***?400.71***
PSindividual effects?−8.45***?−2.54117.13?177.57***
individual effects and linear trends?−4.15***?−0.50?80.77?110.71***
D(PS)individual effects?−6.47***?−8.34***208.61***?442.82***
individual effects and linear trends−12.15***?−8.65***219.30***?356.07***
APindividual effects?−3.64***?−0.12?73.29?187.91***
individual effects and linear trends?−3.06***?−1.28?83.69?136.49***
D(AP)individual effects−19.70***−13.55***357.32***?516.35***
individual effects and linear trends−19.96***−12.83***259.72***?378.57***
AFindividual effects?−4.20***???0.07?71.40?124.85***
individual effects and linear trends−10.08***?−3.39?80.81?126.17***
D(AF)individual effects−24.61***−14.46***498.98***1039.26***
individual effects and linear trends−31.19***−15.65***216.96***?361.91***
Tab.2  Panel unit root test results
Panel ν−1.30−4.50?−0.14−3.40?−1.64−4.83???0.20−3.00−1.11?−4.32??1.03?−0.87
Panel ρ−1.99** d)???0.24?−3.51***−1.17?−3.48***−0.53?−1.76**??1.05−2.90***?−0.24−1.53*???0.60
Panel PP−5.87***−6.99***?−7.49***−8.34***?−8.19***−8.76***?−7.67***−8.15***−8.23***?−10.86***−6.39***?−8.00***
Panel ADF−7.63***−8.52***?−8.48***−6.18***?−8.32***−8.37***?−8.78***−7.93***−6.95***?−7.02***−6.32***−11.37***
Group ρ???0.54???2.26?−0.78??1.53?−0.50??1.98???0.71??2.99−0.43???1.31??0.48???2.69
Group PP−5.49***−6.62***?−6.65***−6.26***?−8.04***−9.21***?−7.41***−8.22***−8.46***−14.40***−7.28***?−8.24***
Group ADF−9.98***−7.38***−10.29***−5.14***−12.26***−9.57***−11.54***−8.84***−7.17***?−9.83***−7.69***−13.26***
Tab.3  Panel cointegration test results a)
CGDPGDP2shape of curveTP(2009 CNY)CGAOshape of curve
NSOLS?−7.31***a)?−5.71?2.50***?7.48?−0.15***?−6.76inverted U-shaped20,000
DOLS(1, 1)?−4.12***?−6.73?1.81***11.32?−0.11***−10.4013,000
DOLS(2, 2)?−4.23***?−5.84?1.89***?9.72?−0.12***?−8.8910,000
PSOLS−12.30***?−8.71?3.59***?9.74?−0.22***?−9.04inverted U-shaped16,000
DOLS(1, 1)?−3.75***?−4.88?1.31***?6.52?−0.07***?−4.8489,000
DOLS(2, 2)?−3.01***?−3.34?1.14***?4.72?−0.06***?−3.3985,000
APOLS?−8.72***?−3.65?2.12***?3.44?−0.10**?−2.44inverted U-shaped245,000?−2.63***−12.80?0.66***28.26linear
DOLS(1, 1)?−4.87***?−4.73?1.39***?5.23?−0.07***?−3.74160,000?−2.29***−12.40?0.62***22.62
DOLS(2, 2)?−3.70***?−2.96?1.09***?3.32?−0.05**?−2.07550,000?−1.85***?−8.11?0.56***16.12
DOLS(1, 1)?−3.46***?−9.101?0.69***12.54?−6.65***−13.59?1.28***17.65
DOLS(2, 2)?−3.21***?−6.75?0.66***?9.31?−7.49***−12.78?1.42***16.07
Tab.4  Panel cointegration estimation results by OLS and DOLS
Fig.2  Inverted U-shaped EKC relationship simulation for NS (a), PS (b) and AP (c)
Fig.1  Fig.A The agrichemicals and economy relationship by year, such as chemical fertilizer (a- 1989, b- 1999, c- 2009), pesticide (d- 1989, e- 1999, f- 2009) and film (g- 1989, h- 1999, i- 2009)

Source: China Rural Statistical Yearbooks, various years

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