Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development

Abstract

Since 2000, China’s urban land has expanded at a dramatic speed because of the country’s rapid urbanization. The country has been experiencing unbalanced development between rural and urban areas, causing serious challenges such as agricultural security and land resources waste. Effectively evaluating the driving factors of urban land growth is essential for improving efficient land use management and sustainable urban development. This study established a principal component regression model based on eight indicators to identify their influences on urban land growth in Guangzhou. The results provided a grouping analysis of the driving factors, and found that economic growth, urban population, and transportation development are the driving forces of urban land growth of Guangzhou, while the tertiary industry has an opposite effect. The findings led to further suggestions and recommendations for urban sustainable development. Hence, local governments should design relevant policies for achieving the rational development of urban land use and strategic planning on urban sustainable development.

Keywords

driving factors / urban land growth / principal component regression / land management policy / sustainable development / Guangzhou

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Acknowledgement

This paper is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71603062 and 41401432), the Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences in Guangdong Province (GD14CGL02); the Project of Science and Technology for local universities in Guangzhou City (1201420951); Guangzhou University’s 2017 training program for young top-notch personnel (BJ201723).

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