Spatiotemporal characteristics of typical ecological carbon sequestration capacity and its relationship with ecological patterns in Jinan

Abstract

[Objective] Carbon sequestration, as a key indicator for assessing the carbon cycle and storage capacity of ecosystems, is of great significance for mitigating climate change. [Methods] Based on Net Primary Productivity(NPP) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) from 2012 to 2022, the Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Hurst index were used to quantitatively analyze the characteristics and future trends of carbon sequestration in Jinan City. Additionally, the relationship between carbon sequestration capacity and ecological patterns of typical ecosystems was investigated through landscape pattern index evaluation and SPSS correlation analysis. [Results] The result showed that:(1) In 2022, the total carbon sequestration in Jinan City reached 1.72×10⁹ kg, with cropland contributing the largest amount of carbon sequestration and forest land showing the highest carbon sequestration capacity.(2) From 2012 to 2022, the total carbon sequestration in Jinan increased by 7.5%, with 83.8% of the regions showing an upward trend in carbon storage, and 83.7% of the regions were expected to continue improving in the future.(3) A significant negative correlation was observed between total carbon sequestration and patch density in the study area. Cropland and grassland showed no significant correlation with landscape pattern indices, while forest land was significantly correlated with landscape percentage, landscape shape indices, and maximum patch indices.(4) Influenced by landscape type changes, the carbon sequestration capacity of stable areas was significantly higher than that of disturbed areas. [Conclusion] Jinan City should strengthen the rational planning of ecological spaces, establish a robust ecological network, and optimize and stabilize landscape patterns, thereby laying the foundation for a sustainable urban ecosystem and achieving the “dual carbon” goals.

Keywords

Net Primary Productivity(NPP) / carbon sequestration / trend test / Hurst index / landscape pattern / Pearson correlation analysis / influencing factors