The Impact of Transit-Oriented Shopping Mall Developments (TOSMDs) on Metro Station Ridership: Dubai Metro Redline

Abstract

Transit-oriented shopping mall development (TOSMD) is a novel concept in urban planning practice. The array of TOSMD attractiveness factors is not currently included in the forecasting models for station ridership. As a result, a station near a TOSMD can reach its capacity because its design and development didn't take into account TOSMD, while TOSMD contributes passenger flow to the station. Depending on the setting, the number of visiting tourists could exacerbate this problem. Therefore, this study aims to empirically identify the critical TOSMD attractiveness factors and clarify their impact in terms of shopper passengers contributing to the ridership at stations near TOSMDs in the case of the Dubai Metro Redline. A sample of 700 shopper passengers were surveyed at seven stations near TOSMDs. We used principal component analysis with confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modelling to explain the impact of TOSMD attractiveness on shopper passenger ridership at stations near TOSMDs. Eleven independent TOSMD attractiveness factors were found to be associated with the extent of shopper passengers’ intention to use a station near a TOSMD. Resident and tourist shopper passengers showed variability in the factors impacting their use of stations near TOSMDs. The study assists in empirically validating the impact of TOSMD attractiveness on ridership at stations near TOSMDs, as a means of increasing the economic sustainability of transit networks. It provides statistically fit models for clarifying the generated resident and tourist shopper passenger ridership contributing to a station ridership as a result of its nearby TOSMDs. For a more comprehensive analysis, future studies could be repeated for transit networks in other cities.

Keywords

Transit-oriented shopping mall development / TOSMD / Attractiveness factors / Station use / Passenger forecasting models

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