The rapid expansion of new metro systems in the last two decades shows a globally growing interest in urban rail transit infrastructure. Every time a new metro line is opened, it has the potential to change the existing modal split, which is usually dominated by private (car or motorcycle) transport users. For each new or expanding metro system, a feasibility study is conducted, which focusses mainly on existing mobility issues, travel demand, new infrastructure proposed, and environmental and financial aspects of a new metro project. In these documents, specific methodologies are applied, using local parameters and suitable software, for demand forecasting purposes. However, not much attention is usually dedicated to potential users, their modal choice characteristics, willingness to shift to metro and conditions under which such a shift would be encouraging. Therefore, it is often unclear what the actual public perception of a new service is and their interest in using it in the future. As a consequence of various shortcomings in feasibility studies, the actual demand for metro services is often much lower than originally predicted. Hence, a survey targeting a group of potential metro users located close to a planned metro line was designed to investigate people’s willingness to shift to metro and include soft factors that could facilitate such a change. Next, a case study of the Red Line whose final metro stop is at Salaya, Thailand, was selected, and a sample of 667 respondents, both staff and students based at a nearby university campus, was investigated. Results revealed that 90% of the sample is willing to shift to metro (easy and medium shifters) for a future 20-km trip between Salaya and Bangkok, while only 10% remains sceptic (difficult shifters). Moreover, there are some differences in shifters’ priorities, where easy shifters see factors such as reliable timetable, good mode connectivity and seamless station–campus connection as significantly more important than medium or difficult shifters do. Also, there is a significant association between a mode type currently used for Salaya and Salaya–Bangkok commutes, where private transport users (51% of staff and 43% of students) have already shifted to public transport. Based on the outcomes of the study, recommendations are addressed to stakeholders involved in the Red Line, as well as in other new metro projects in Thailand and internationally, and to those who aim to better understand the needs of potential customers in order to facilitate their shift to metro as a preferred mode of transport in the future.
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Funding
Mahidol University(Postdoctoral Fellowship)
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