Digital twin-enabled simulation system for NATM tunnel construction process considering multi-source uncertainty

Abstract

During the construction of new Austrian tunnelling method (NATM) tunnels, inherent multi-source uncertainties may lead to substantial economic losses and project delays. To address this issue, a simulation system enabled by digital twin (DT) technology was developed. Guided by the concept of five-dimensional DT, a four-layer system architecture was established, including perception, transmission, modelling, and alternation layers. An integrated discrete event simulation (DES) model was then developed as the core of the system using structured system analysis. The model accounts for both geological and construction-related uncertainties, including routine delays and accident recovery durations. Geological uncertainties are represented through a stochastic geological modelling approach based on the Markov random field (MRF). Construction-related uncertainties are addressed using a tunnel vulnerability evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process – decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (AHP–DEMATEL) method, along with the fitting of delay probability density functions. Finally, the proposed system was validated and evaluated in a real-world tunnel project. The results demonstrate that the system effectively analyzes multiple uncertainties, accurately estimates the construction schedule, enhances communication with the construction site, and ensures the safe and efficient completion of the project.

Keywords

NATM tunnelling / Digital twin / Process simulation / Markov random field / Tunnelling uncertainty

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