Future changes in population exposure to snowfall extremes across Eurasia

Abstract

Extreme snowfall events have frequently occurred across parts of Eurasia, causing substantial economic losses and severe societal impacts. As global warming intensifies, assessing its potential effect on population exposure to such extremes becomes increasingly crucial. This study employed CMIP6 model datasets and future population projections to predict changes in population exposure to snowfall extremes over Eurasia under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and attributed the drivers behind these changes. Results indicate that, on average across Eurasia, both extreme snowfall days and the associated population exposure increase until the mid-21st century (2041–2060). Specifically, population exposure to snowstorm days will increase by 4.1% in the near term (2021–2040) and by 1.8% in the medium term, with particularly pronounced increases over Central Asia, East Asia, and the Mediterranean. Population change is identified as the dominant factor influencing exposure changes across Eurasia, followed by climate change and climate-population synergistic effects. Toward the end of the century, as both snowstorm days and population size decline markedly, the corresponding population exposure decreases further. Thus, climate adaptation policies should account for the heightened population risks linked to increasing snowfall extremes in Eurasia up to the mid-21st century.

Keywords

climate change / contribution / Eurasia / population exposure / snowfall extremes

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2026 The Author(s). River published by Wiley-VCH GmbH on behalf of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR).