Study of meteorological-hydrological drought propagation under reservoir regulation using a Copula-Bayesian network in the Hanjiang River Basin

Abstract

Reservoir operations play a pivotal role in modifying drought propagation processes, particularly by influencing the transition from meteorological to hydrological drought. This study investigates the drought propagation characteristics in the middle reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin, China, under both natural and observed (reservoir-influenced) conditions. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and Standardized Streamflow Index were utilized to characterize meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was employed to reconstruct natural streamflow, providing a baseline for comparison. A nonlinear copula function was applied to model the dependence between meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics, and a Copula-Bayesian network was developed to quantify propagation probabilities. Under the regulation of the Danjiangkou Reservoir, drought propagation characteristics for 1-12-month timescales have shifted markedly: the average propagation time downstream was prolonged from 0.25-0.70 months to 0.94-2.36 months, while the propagation rate declined from 0.83-0.89 to 0.48-0.65, and the sensitivity decreased from 0.83-0.96 to 0.68-0.79. In the natural scenario, the optimal propagation model was based on the Gumbel copula, whereas the observed scenario was best fitted by the Frank copula. The likelihood of hydrological drought increased with the intensity and duration of meteorological drought. However, compared to natural conditions, reservoir regulation significantly delayed the onset and reduced the probability of hydrological drought occurrence. These findings elucidate the nonlinear dynamics of drought propagation and underscore the regulating effect of large-scale reservoirs on downstream hydrological responses.

Keywords

Copula-Bayesian network / Danjiangkou Reservoir / drought propagation / hydrological drought / meteorological drought

References

[1] Abdi-Dehkordi, M., Bozorg-Haddad, O., Salavitabar, A., Mohammad-Azari, S., & Goharian, E. (2021). Development of flood mitigation strategies toward sustainable development. Natural Hazards, 108(3), 2543-2567.

[2] Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., & Williams, J. R. (1998). Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment. Part I: Model development. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34(1), 73-89.

[3] Bhardwaj, K., Shah, D., Aadhar, S., & Mishra, V. (2020). Propagation of meteorological to hydrological droughts in India. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125(22), e2020JD033455.

[4] Chen, N., Li, R., Zhang, X., Yang, C., Wang, X., Zeng, L., Tang, S., Wang, W., Li, D., & Niyogi, D. (2020). Drought propagation in Northern China Plain: A comparative analysis of GLDAS and MERRA-2 datasets. Journal of Hydrology, 588, 125026.

[5] Chen, X., Li, F., Li, J., & Feng, P. (2019). Three-dimensional identification of hydrological drought and multivariate drought risk probability assessment in the Luanhe River basin, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(3-4), 3055-3076.

[6] Chiang, F., Mazdiyasni, O., & AghaKouchak, A. (2021). Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity. Nature Communications, 12(1), 2754.

[7] Ding, Y., Xu, J., Wang, X., Cai, H., Zhou, Z., Sun, Y., & Shi, H. (2021). Propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought for different climate regions in China. Journal of Environmental Management, 283, 111980.

[8] Eltahir, E. A. B., & Yeh, P. J.-F. (1999). On the asymmetric response of aquifer water level to floods and droughts in Illinois. Water Resources Research, 35(4), 1199-1217.

[9] Espinosa-Tasón, J., Berbel, J., Gutiérrez-Martín, C., & Musolino, D. A. (2022). Socioeconomic impact of 2005-2008 drought in Andalusian agriculture. Science of the Total Environment, 826, 154148.

[10] Fang, W., Huang, S., Huang, Q., Huang, G., Wang, H., Leng, G., & Wang, L. (2020). Identifying drought propagation by simultaneously considering linear and nonlinear dependence in the WEI RIVER basin of the Loess Plateau, China. Journal of Hydrology, 591, 125287.

[11] Geng, H., & Shen, B. (1992). Definition and significance of hydrological drought. Arid Region Agricultural Research, 10(4), 91-94.

[12] Guo, Y., Huang, S., Huang, Q., Leng, G., Fang, W., Wang, L., & Wang, H. (2020). Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels. Science of the Total Environment, 712, 136502.

[13] Hao, Z., Hao, F., Singh, V. P., Sun, A. Y., & Xia, Y. (2016). Probabilistic prediction of hydrologic drought using a conditional probability approach based on the meta-Gaussian model. Journal of Hydrology, 542, 772-780.

[14] He, N., Yin, J., Slater, L. J., Liu, R., Kang, S., Liu, P., Liu, D., & Xiong, L. (2024). Global terrestrial drought and its projected socioeconomic implications under different warming targets. Science of the Total Environment, 946, 174292.

[15] Heim, R. R. (2002). A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(8), 1149-1166.

[16] Ho, S., Tian, L., Disse, M., & Tuo, Y. (2021). A new approach to quantify propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought. Journal of Hydrology, 603, 127056.

[17] Huang, S., Zhang, X., Chen, N., Li, B., Ma, H., Xu, L., Li, R., & Niyogi, D. (2021). Drought propagation modification after the construction of the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 603, 127138.

[18] Hwang, K., & Cho, S. A. (2007). Constrained learning method based on ontology of Bayesian networks for effective recognition of uncertain scenes. Journal of KISS: Software and Applications, 34(6), 549-561.

[19] Jain, S. K., Shilpa, L. S., Rani, D., & Sudheer, K. P. (2023). State-of-the-art review: Operation of multi-purpose reservoirs during flood season. Journal of Hydrology, 618, 129165.

[20] Jehanzaib, M., Shah, S. A., Yoo, J., & Kim, T.-W. (2020). Investigating the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought using non-stationary approaches. Journal of Hydrology, 588, 125052.

[21] Jiang, S., Wang, M., Ren, L., Xu, C.-Y., Yuan, F., Liu, Y., Lu, Y., & Shen, H. (2019). A framework for quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought in a semiarid basin of Northern China. Hydrological Processes, 33(7), 1075-1088.

[22] Jiang, T., Su, X., Qu, Y., Singh, V. P., Zhang, T., Chu, J., & Hu, X. (2024). Determining the response of ecological drought to meteorological and groundwater droughts in Northwest China using a spatio-temporal matching method. Journal of Hydrology, 633, 130753.

[23] Jin, H., Willems, P., Chen, X., & Liu, M. (2024). Comprehensive evaluation of extreme hydrometeorological events coincidence and their interrelationships in the Hanjiang River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 638, 131506.

[24] van Langen, S. C. H., Costa, A. C., Ribeiro Neto, G. G., & van Oel, P. R. (2021). Effect of a reservoir network on drought propagation in a semi-arid catchment in brazil. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66(10), 1567-1583.

[25] Leitman, S., Pine, W. E., & Kiker, G. (2016). Management options during the 2011-2012 drought on the Apalachicola River: A systems dynamic model evaluation. Environmental Management, 58(2), 193-207.

[26] Li, C., Qu, Y., Jiang, T., Jiang, F., Wang, Q., Zhang, X., & Xu, X. (2024). Attribution analysis of hydrological drought after the impoundment of the Danjiangkou reservoir in the Hanjiang River Basin. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 56, 102038.

[27] Li, P., Huang, Q., Huang, S., Leng, G., Peng, J., Wang, H., Zheng, X., Li, Y., & Fang, W. (2022). Various maize yield losses and their dynamics triggered by drought thresholds based on Copula-Bayesian conditional probabilities. Agricultural Water Management, 261, 107391.

[28] Li, R., Chen, N., Zhang, X., Zeng, L., Wang, X., Tang, S., Li, D., & Niyogi, D. (2020). Quantitative analysis of agricultural drought propagation process in the Yangtze River Basin by using cross wavelet analysis and spatial autocorrelation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 280, 107809.

[29] Lin, Q., Wu, Z., Singh, V. P., Sadeghi, S. H. R., He, H., & Lu, G. (2017). Correlation between hydrological drought, climatic factors, reservoir operation, and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin, South China. Journal of Hydrology, 549, 512-524.

[30] Liu, H., Wu, J., & Xu, Y. (2018). Investigating the effects of precipitation on drought in the Hanjiang River Basin using SPI. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 10(4), 977-992.

[31] Liu, Q., Yang, Y., Liang, L., Jun, H., Yan, D., Wang, X., Li, C., & Sun, T. (2023a). Thresholds for triggering the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in water-limited regions of China. Science of the Total Environment, 876, 162771.

[32] Liu, Q., Yang, Y., Liang, L., Yan, D., Wang, X., Li, C., & Sun, T. (2023b). Shift in precipitation-streamflow relationship induced by multi-year drought across global catchments. Science of the Total Environment, 857, 159560.

[33] Liu, X., Luo, Y., Yang, T., Liang, K., Zhang, M., & Liu, C. (2015). Investigation of the probability of concurrent drought events between the water source and destination regions of China's water diversion project: DROUGHT OF CHINA'S WATER DIVERSION. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(20), 8424-8431.

[34] Liu, Y., Shan, F., Yue, H., Wang, X., & Fan, Y. (2023c). Global analysis of the correlation and propagation among meteorological, agricultural, surface water, and groundwater droughts. Journal of Environmental Management, 333, 117460.

[35] Van Loon, A. F. (2015). Hydrological drought explained. WIREs Water, 2(4), 359-392.

[36] Van Loon, A. F., Gleeson, T., Clark, J., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Stahl, K., Hannaford, J., Di Baldassarre, G., Teuling, A. J., Tallaksen, L. M., Uijlenhoet, R., Hannah, D. M., Sheffield, J., Svoboda, M., Verbeiren, B., Wagener, T., Rangecroft, S., Wanders, N., & Van Lanen, H. A. J. (2016). Drought in the Anthropocene. Nature Geoscience, 9(2), 89-91.

[37] Van Loon, A. F., & Laaha, G. (2015). Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics. Journal of Hydrology, 526, 3-14.

[38] Lu, X., Zhuang, Y., Wang, X., & Yang, Q. (2018). Assessment of streamflow change in middle-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 23(12), 05018024.

[39] Ma, M., Song, S., Ren, L., Jiang, S., & Song, J. (2013). Multivariate drought characteristics using trivariate Gaussian and student t copulas. Hydrological Processes, 27(8), 1175-1190.

[40] Madadgar, S., & Moradkhani, H. (2014). Spatio-temporal drought forecasting within Bayesian networks. Journal of Hydrology, 512, 134-146.

[41] Miao, C., & Gou, J. (2022). CNRDv1.0: The China natural runoff dataset version 1.0 (1961-2018). National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center. https://doi.org/10.11888/Atmos.tpdc.272864

[42] Mtibaa, S., & Asano, S. (2022). Hydrological evaluation of radar and satellite gauge-merged precipitation datasets using the SWAT model: Case of the Terauchi catchment in Japan. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 42, 101134.

[43] Narasimhan, B., & Srinivasan, R. (2005). Development and evaluation of Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) for agricultural drought monitoring. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 133(1-4), 69-88.

[44] Ouyang, S. Z., Zhong, L., & Luo, R. Q. (2018). The comparison and analysis of extracting video key frame. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 359, 012010.

[45] Pachore, A., Agrawal, N., Omonov, N., Rakhmonov, K., Umirzakov, G., Mujumdar, S., & Remesan, R. (2024). Evaluation of the impact of anthropogenic storage on the hydrological drought propagation in two contrasting semi-arid river basins. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(7), 3276-3292.

[46] Poonia, V., Jha, S., & Goyal, M. K. (2021). Copula based analysis of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought characteristics across Indian river basins. International Journal of Climatology, 41(9), 4637-4652.

[47] Prasanchum, H., Tumma, N., & Lohpaisankrit, W. (2022). Establishing spatial distributions of drought phenomena on cultivation seasons using the SWAT model. Geographia Technica, 17(2/2022), 1-13.

[48] Raposo, V. M. B., Costa, V. A. F., & Rodrigues, A. F. (2023). A review of recent developments on drought characterization, propagation, and influential factors. Science of the Total Environment, 898, 165550.

[49] Romeo, J. S., Tanaka, N. I., & Pedroso-De-Lima, A. C. (2006). Bivariate survival modeling: a Bayesian approach based on Copulas. Lifetime Data Analysis, 12(2), 205-222.

[50] Sattar, M. N., Lee, J.-Y., Shin, J.-Y., & Kim, T.-W. (2019). Probabilistic characteristics of drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in South Korea. Water Resources Management, 33(7), 2439-2452.

[51] Senbeta, T. B., Napiórkowski, J. J., Karamuz, E., Kochanek, K., & Woyessa, Y. E. (2024). Impacts of water regulation through a reservoir on drought dynamics and propagation in the Pilica River watershed. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 53, 101812.

[52] Shao, J. (1997). An asymptotic theory for linear model selection. Statistica Sinica, 7(2), 221-264.

[53] Shiau, J.-T. (2023). Causality-based drought propagation analyses among meteorological drought, hydrologic drought, and water shortage. Science of the Total Environment, 888, 164216.

[54] Sreeparvathy, V., & Srinivas, V. V. (2022). Meteorological flash droughts risk projections based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5(1), 77.

[55] Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., & López-Moreno, J. I. (2010). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 23(7), 1696-1718.

[56] Vicente-Serrano, S. M., López-Moreno, J. I., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Azorin-Molina, C., & Morán-Tejeda, E. (2012). Accurate computation of a streamflow drought index. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(2), 318-332.

[57] Van de Vyver, H., & Van den Bergh, J. (2018). The Gaussian copula model for the joint deficit index for droughts. Journal of Hydrology, 561, 987-999.

[58] Wang, F., Lai, H., Li, Y., Feng, K., Zhang, Z., Tian, Q., Zhu, X., & Yang, H. (2022a). Dynamic variation of meteorological drought and its relationships with agricultural drought across China. Agricultural Water Management, 261, 107301.

[59] Wang, H., Wang, Z., Bai, Y., & Wang, W. (2024). Propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to hydrological drought considering nonlinear correlations - A case study of the Hanjiang River Basin, China. Ecological Informatics, 80, 102512.

[60] Wang, L., Zhang, J., Elmahdi, A., Shu, Z., Wu, Y., & Wang, G. (2021). Evolution characteristics and relationship of meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1961 to 2018 in Hanjiang River Basin, China. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 13(1), 224-246.

[61] Wang, Y., Li, J., Zhang, T., & Wang, B. (2019). Changes in drought propagation under the regulation of reservoirs and water diversion. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 138(1-2), 701-711.

[62] Wang, Y., Peng, T., He, Y., Singh, V. P., Lin, Q., Dong, X., Fan, T., Liu, J., Guo, J., & Wang, G. (2023a). Attribution analysis of non-stationary hydrological drought using the GAMLSS framework and an improved SWAT model. Journal of Hydrology, 627, 130420.

[63] Wang, Y., Peng, T., Lin, Q., Singh, V. P., Dong, X., Chen, C., Liu, J., Chang, W., & Wang, G. (2022b). A new non-stationary hydrological drought index encompassing climate indices and modified reservoir index as covariates. Water Resources Management, 36(7), 2433-2454.

[64] Wang, Y., Wang, D., & Wu, J. (2015). Assessing the impact of Danjiangkou reservoir on ecohydrological conditions in Hanjiang river, China. Ecological Engineering, 81, 41-52.

[65] Wang, Y. X., Peng, T., He, Y. H., Singh, V. P., Lin, Q. X., Dong, X. H., Fan, T. Y., Liu, J., Guo, J. L., & Wang, G. X. (2023b). Attribution analysis of non-stationary hydrological drought using the GAMLSS framework and an improved SWAT model. Journal of Hydrology, 627, 130420.

[66] Wen, L., Rogers, K., Ling, J., & Saintilan, N. (2011). The impacts of river regulation and water diversion on the hydrological drought characteristics in the Lower Murrumbidgee River, Australia. Journal of Hydrology, 405(3-4), 382-391.

[67] Wen, W., Jingshu, W., Yiyuan, T., & Hui, C. (2020). Research progress on the impact of human activities on the formation and development of hydrological drought. Journal of China Hydrology, 40(3), 1-8.

[68] Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985). Understanding: the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water International, 10(3), 111-120.

[69] Wu, H., Su, X., Singh, V. P., AghaKouchak, A., & Liu, Z. (2023). Bayesian vine copulas improve agricultural drought prediction for long lead times. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 331, 109326.

[70] Wu, J., Chen, X., Gao, L., Yao, H., Chen, Y., & Liu, M. (2016). Response of hydrological drought to meteorological drought under the influence of large reservoir. Advances in Meteorology, 2016, 1-11.

[71] Wu, J., Chen, X., Yao, H., Gao, L., Chen, Y., & Liu, M. (2017). Non-linear relationship of hydrological drought responding to meteorological drought and impact of a large reservoir. Journal of Hydrology, 551, 495-507.

[72] Wu, J., Chen, X., Yao, H., & Zhang, D. (2021a). Multi-timescale assessment of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological drought. Science of the Total Environment, 765, 144232.

[73] Wu, J., Liu, Z., Yao, H., Chen, X., Chen, X., Zheng, Y., & He, Y. (2018). Impacts of reservoir operations on multi-scale correlations between hydrological drought and meteorological drought. Journal of Hydrology, 563, 726-736.

[74] Wu, J., Yao, H., Chen, X., Wang, G., Bai, X., & Zhang, D. (2022). A framework for assessing compound drought events from a drought propagation perspective. Journal of Hydrology, 604, 127228.

[75] Wu, J., Yuan, X., Yao, H., Chen, X., & Wang, G. (2021b). Reservoirs regulate the relationship between hydrological drought recovery water and drought characteristics. Journal of Hydrology, 603, 127127.

[76] Wu, J., Zhang, X., Wang, G., Wu, W., Zhang, D., & Lan, T. (2024). Impacts of hydrometeorological regime shifts on drought propagation: The meteorological to hydrological perspective. Journal of Hydrology, 638, 131476.

[77] Xing, Z., Ma, M., Zhang, X., Leng, G., Su, Z., Lv, J., Yu, Z., & Yi, P. (2021). Altered drought propagation under the influence of reservoir regulation. Journal of Hydrology, 603, 127049.

[78] Xu, Y., Zhang, X., Wang, X., Hao, Z., Singh, V. P., & Hao, F. (2019). Propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought under the impact of human activities: A case study in northern China. Journal of Hydrology, 579, 124147.

[79] Xu, Z., Wu, Z., Shao, Q., He, H., & Guo, X. (2023). From meteorological to agricultural drought: Propagation time and probabilistic linkages. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 46, 101329.

[80] Yang, X., Wu, F., Yuan, S., Ren, L., Sheffield, J., Fang, X., Jiang, S., & Liu, Y. (2024). Quantifying the impact of human activities on hydrological drought and drought propagation in China using the PCR-GLOBWB v2.0 model. Water Resources Research, 60(1), e2023WR035443.

[81] Ye, X., Li, X., Xu, C.-Y., & Zhang, Q. (2016). Similarity, difference and correlation of meteorological and hydrological drought indices in a humid climate region - the Poyang Lake catchment in China. Hydrology Research, 47(6), 1211-1223.

[82] Yevjevich, V. M. (1967). An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts. Journal of Hydrology, 7(3), 353.

[83] Yuan, X., Zhang, M., Wang, L., & Zhou, T. (2017). Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(11), 5477-5492.

[84] Zhang, D., Zhang, Q., Qiu, J., Bai, P., Liang, K., & Li, X. (2018). Intensification of hydrological drought due to human activity in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China. Science of the Total Environment, 637-638, 1432-1442.

[85] Zhang, Q., Miao, C., Guo, X., Gou, J., & Su, T. (2023a). Human activities impact the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Yellow River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 623, 129752.

[86] Zhang, T., Su, X., & Wu, L. (2023). Integrating multiple comparison methods for attributing hydrological drought evolution and drought propagation: The impact of climate change cannot be ignored. Journal of Hydrology, 621, 129557.

[87] Zhang, X., Hao, Z., Singh, V. P., Zhang, Y., Feng, S., Xu, Y., & Hao, F. (2022). Drought propagation under global warming: Characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors. Science of the Total Environment, 838(2), 156021.

[88] Zhang, X., Ren, G., Bing, H., Mikami, T., Matsumoto, J., Zhang, P., & Yang, G. (2023b). Reconstruction and characterization of droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin, China, 1426-2017. Climatic Change, 176(5), 62.

[89] Zhang, X., She, D., Xia, J., Zhang, L., Deng, C., & Liu, Z. (2023). The changing characteristics of propagation time from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Atmospheric Research, 290, 106774.

[90] Zhao, M., Huang, S., Huang, Q., Wang, H., Leng, G., & Xie, Y. (2019). Assessing socio-economic drought evolution characteristics and their possible meteorological driving force. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 10(1), 1084-1101.

[91] Zhou, M., Xiong, L., Jiang, C., Chen, G., Liu, C., & Zha, X. (2024). River network-based index to clarify transmission of hydrological drought in reservoir-regulated basins. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 51, 101604.

[92] Zhou, Z., Shi, H., Fu, Q., Ding, Y., Li, T., Wang, Y., & Liu, S. (2021). Characteristics of propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Pearl River Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126(4), e2020JD033959.

[93] Zhou, Z., Wang, P., Li, L., Fu, Q., Ding, Y., Chen, P., Xue, P., Wang, T., & Shi, H. (2024). Recent development on drought propagation: A comprehensive review. Journal of Hydrology, 645(B), 132196.

[94] Zhu, Z., Duan, W., Zou, S., Zeng, Z., Chen, Y., Feng, M., Qin, J., & Liu, Y. (2024). Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought events in 34 major global river basins during 1901-2021. Science of the Total Environment, 921, 170913.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2026 The Author(s). River published by Wiley-VCH GmbH on behalf of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR).