Spurious learning and bouncing back: Resilience and simulation modelling applied to the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

This paper aims to provide a window opportunity to share a reflection and learning from different countries and from other disciplines with the focus on resilience. There is also an attempt to theorize the concept of learning from spurious success and failure in the context of COVID-19. The main emphasis is to provide understanding of the causal factors and the identification of improved measures and modelling approaches to prevent and mitigate against future pandemics. Proposed decision tools of resilience and bowtie modelling as enablers for decision makers to prevent hazards and protect against their consequences.

Keywords

Resilience / COVID-19 / Spurious learning / GHS index / Bowtie modelling

Relevance to resilience

The paper uses the Resilience Triangle Model as a tool for investigation. It also applies the resilience capabilities and utilises a set of integrated tools for resilience modelling.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Ashraf Labib: Writing - review & editing, Writing - original draft, Visualization, Validation, Resources, Project administration, Methodology, Investigation, Funding acquisition, Formal analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgment

This work was partially supported by the project “Societal and Economic Resilience within multi-hazards environment in Romania” funded by European Union – Next generation EU and Romanian Government, under National Recovery and Resilience Plan for Romania, contract no.760050/ 23.05.2023, cod PNRR-C9-I8-CF 267/ 29.11.2022, through the Romanian Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitalization, within Component 9, Investment I8.

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