Investing in resilience: A long-term analysis of china's flood protection strategies

Abstract

Investing in disaster risk reduction is crucial for minimizing the impacts of disasters. However, little is known about the factors that influence changes in investment levels over time. This study aims to identify the key socio-economic drivers behind increases and decreases in flood protection investment in People's Republic of China (PRC). Such information is crucial for policy makers to justify flood investments. By analyzing data on flood protection expenditures, economic losses from floods, and other relevant indicators from 1980 to 2020, the study evaluates the relationship between investment and disaster impacts through the lens of the flood investment cycle model. It was found that the country succeeded in reducing flood damage because of increasing investment in flood protection. The results indicate that changes in PRC's flood protection investment have been driven by three major factors: the occurrence of major disasters, the fiscal situation, and shifts in government policies. Investment tended to increase following large-scale events, such as the 1998 Yangtze River Basin flood and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which prompted policy changes and renewed focus on DRR measures. Fiscal constraints limited investment in the 1990s, but reforms and stimulus measures improved the financial situation, enabling increased spending on flood protection. PRC's experience in steadily reducing flood damage through sustained investment and policy commitment offers valuable lessons for other developing countries facing similar challenges.

Keywords

Flood investment cycle / Yangtze River / PRC / Flood damage / Economic losses / Disaster risk reduction

Relevance to resilience

Investing in infrastructure is crucial for strengthening resilience to natural disasters. This study identifies the key drivers behind flood protection investment changes in the People's Republic of China (PRC) from 1980 to 2020. The analysis shows that the PRC successfully reduced flood damage through increased investment driven by three factors: major disasters, fiscal conditions, and government policy shifts. Investment rose after events like the 1998 Yangtze River flood, while fiscal reforms enabled sustained spending despite initial constraints. The PRC's experience in reducing flood damage through sustained investment and policy commitment provides valuable lessons for other developing countries working to enhance their disaster resilience.

Declaration of generative AI and AI-assisted technologies in the writing process

During the preparation of this work the authors used ChatGPT in order to edit English. After using this tool, the authors reviewed and edited the content as needed and take full responsibility for the content of the publication.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Koji Watanabe: Writing - original draft, Investigation, Formal analysis, Data curation. Mikio Ishiwatari: Writing - review & editing, Methodology, Conceptualization. Daisuke Sasaki: Supervision, Methodology. Akiko Sakamoto: Resources, Funding acquisition. Mikiyasu Nakayama: Supervision.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgments

This study is a part of the research project of Global Infrastructure Fund Research Foundation Japan “Investment in Disaster Risk Reduction”.

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