Building Stock and Emission Models for Jakarta

Abstract

Understanding urban-scale building emissions is crucial for achieving net-zero targets. This study examined embodied and operational emissions in Jakarta from 2010 to 2022 using the bottom-up Building Stock Model (BSM) and analyzed building stocks across seven categories: apartments, offices, malls, hotels, education facilities, hospitals, and landed houses. Carbon factors for construction materials, fuels, electricity, and cooking gas, along with occupancy rates, were included in the emissions calculations. The findings reveal consistent growth in apartments, malls, and offices, with operational emissions significantly decreasing after the 2015 green building regulations. Despite a declining share in Jakarta’s building stock, landed houses still account for over 40% of embodied and nearly 75% of operational emissions. With around 80% of the population preferring to live in landed houses, their impact on emissions remains substantial. In 2010, Jakarta’s building floor stock was 167 km². Projections using simple linear regression suggest it could reach 268 km² by 2050. Emission forecasts using the Prophet Forecasting Model (PFM) suggest that by 2050, building emissions could return to 2010 levels if stricter regulations are consistently enforced. The study underscores the necessity for continuous regulatory advancements and carbon offset initiatives to achieve net-zero emissions.

Keywords

Building stocks / Embodied emissions / Operational emissions / Prophet forecasting model / PACS0000 / 1111

Relevance to resilience

The building sector accounts for over one-third of Jakarta’s total emissions, making it a critical area for intervention. This research proposes an integrated approach to accurately account for and estimate urban building emission trends using BSM, followed by forecasting with the PFM. By gaining a deeper understanding of Jakarta’s building emissions profile, the government can develop and implement effective measures to mitigate climate change and enhance urban resilience. This research aligns with the Journal of Resilient Cities and Structures’ focus on building resilient cities across multiple dimensions and mitigating the impact of disasters on urban environments.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Hanif Hanif: Writing - original draft, Visualization, Validation, Methodology, Conceptualization. Ahmed Z. Khan: Writing - review & editing, Supervision, Methodology, Conceptualization. Muhammad Idrus Alhamid: Writing - review & editing, Validation, Supervision, Methodology, Conceptualization. Yohei Yamaguchi: Writing - review & editing, Supervision, Methodology.

Declaration of competing interest

All authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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