The Influence of Significant Public Health Events on Offline Consumption and Its Pathways

Abstract

In the face of a significant public health event, consumers may either increase their panic buying or decrease their willingness to make purchases. This study focuses on the impact of a significant public health event on offline store sales and consumer consumption, utilizing data from chain convenience stores in Hefei and Wuhu during early 2019 and early 2020 in China. Employing a difference-in-differences model, the study investigates the effect of the significant public health event outbreak on weekly store sales, order numbers, and consumer consumption in terms of product quantities, transaction amount, average amount per order, and transaction frequency. Different from prior literature that finds hoarding behavior of consumers online, the findings of this paper indicate a significant reduction in stores’ offline weekly sales and order numbers, as well as consumers’ offline weekly consumption across the four dimensions, as a result of the significant public health event outbreak. Additionally, employing a mediation model, the study explores the pathway of population mobility through which the significant public health event adversely affects offline consumption. Furthermore, subset analysis is conducted for stores located in different areas and consumers with varying characteristics, revealing that the aforementioned conclusions predominantly apply to stores situated in office areas and residential areas, as well as consumers with either no apparent preference for different product categories or a noticeable preference for food.

Keywords

Significant public health event / offline consumption / population mobility / mediating effect

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