A Study on the Privatization Decisions of China Concepts Stock Based on the Tax Shield Effect

Abstract

In this paper, we construct a company value model based on the tax shield effect for overseas listing and privatization scenarios. The trade-off process of privatization decisions is simulated in the context of China concept stock companies’ reality. The results indicate that the value of tax shields, the degree of undervaluation, the ability to obtain cash flows, the risk of short selling, the cost of listing transactions, and fraud penalties are critical factors influencing the choice of privatization. The company value analysis shows that tax shield effect positively affects the probability of privatization. Furthermore, the weaker the ability of a company to obtain cash flow when listed overseas, the lower the WACC, the higher the risk of being shorted, and the higher the cost of listing transactions, the higher the probability that a company will choose to go private. Finally, numerical simulations are adopted to validate the validity of the theoretical model and the findings using SINA’s privatization as a case study. The findings can provide academic guidance and a decision-making basis on trading arrangements for CCS companies.

Keywords

China concept stock (CCS) / privatization / tax shield effect / undervaluation / free cash flow

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