The Strategy of Escalation and Negotiation: The Iran Nuclear Dispute

Abstract

The strategic decisions and resulting consequences surrounding the conflict between the United States of America (US) and Iran regarding the Iranian nuclear program are formally investigated using a flexible decision methodology called the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). This highly controversial dispute caught the world’s attention as concerns were growing that Iran would reach a position where it would be able to build nuclear weapons, thereby posing a risk to world security. While Iran insisted on its rights for the peaceful use of nuclear technology, the international community, led by the US, tried to discourage the nuclear activities of Iran to ensure its obligations to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. This led to an escalation of tension on both sides, with an extension of the nuclear program by Iran and an increase in sanctions by the US, before it was possible to arrive at a negotiated agreement. As demonstrated in this paper, a systematic GMCR investigation provides valuable strategic insights into this important conflict. Further, it illustrates ways in which the conflict could have evolved, as well as mechanisms for stopping an escalation like this in the future.

Keywords

Negotiation / Graph Model for Conflict Resolution / Iran / US / nuclear security / economic sanctions

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