Nuclear non-proliferation and international security: A drama theoretic approach

Abstract

While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to nuclear proliferation and disarmament issues, traditional decision analysis assumes that decision makers, options, and preferences are fixed. A drama theoretic approach is used to overcome these limiting assumptions: Drama Theory (DT) II allows global leaders and national security policy makers to engage in a rational-emotional process of re-defining international security negotiations (and their “positions” in them) until agreement on a satisfactory nuclear non-proliferation resolution is reached. The 2009 nuclear energy negotiations between Iran and world powers are modeled with DT II and the Confrontation ManagerTM Decision Support System. By adjusting strategy and deriving transformative security policy, it is shown how international security can be achieved by promoting nuclear non-proliferation and resolving strategic conflict.

Keywords

Nuclear non-proliferation / strategic conflict / drama theory / international security

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