A unified framework for site selection and business forecasting using ANP

Abstract

This paper reports an on-going application of the Analytic Network Process (ANP) in the context of a non-profit organization: The Latin American Studies Association (LASA). This institution organizes a large international conference every eighteen months and needs to estimate conference attendance in advance (for logistic purposes) as well as selecting a host city where the combination of hotel infrastructure, conference costs, and so on, makes it a sound financial choice. In this paper, ANP will be used to: first, create a model to predict the relative number of attendees to the forthcoming 2009 LASA conference; and second, to create a Benefit-Cost-Risk (BCR) model to select the most suitable Latin American city as the conference site. This paper shows how the combination of these two ANP models, one for prediction and one for selection, can be used together for effective decision-making.

Keywords

ANP / AHP / non-profit decision-making / predictive models / site selection

References

[1] Garuti C., Escudey M.. Toma de Decisiones en Escenarios Complejos, 2005, Santiago de Chile: Editorial Universidad de Santiago, Chile

[2] Meade L., Preseley A.. R&D project selection using the analytic process. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2002, 49: 59-66.

[3] Saaty T. L.. Multicriteria Decision Making: The Analytic Hierarchy Process, 1990, Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications

[4] Saaty T. L.. Fundamentals of Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 2000, Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications

[5] Saaty T. L.. Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback: The Analytic Network Process, 2001, Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications

[6] Saaty T. L.. SuperDecisions Software Manual, 2004, Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications

[7] Saaty T. L.. Decision making — the analytic hierarchy and network processes (AHP/ANP). Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2004, 13(1): 1-34.

[8] Saaty T. L.. Fundamentals of the analytic network process — dependence and feedback in decision making with a single network. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2004, 13(2): 129-157.

[9] Saaty T. L.. Fundamentals of he analytic network process — multiple networks with benefits, costs, opportunities and risks. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2004, 13(2): 1-32.

[10] Saaty T. L.. Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks, 2005, Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications

[11] Saaty T. L., Ozdemir M.. The Encyclicon: A Dictionary of Decisions with Dependence and Feedback Based on the Analytic Network Process, 2005, Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications

[12] Sarkis J., Sanadaarraj R.. Hub Location at Digital Equipment Corporation: A comprehensive analysis of qualitative and quantitative factors. European Journal of Operations Research, 2002, 137(2): 336-347.

[13] Saaty T. L., Vargas L., Dellman K.. The allocation of intangible resources: the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Linear Programming. Socio-Economic Planning Science, 2003, 37: 169-184.

[14] Shang J.S., Tjader Y., Ding Y.. A unified framework for multicriteria evaluation of transportation projects. IEEE Transactions of Engineering Management, 2004, 51(3): 300-313.