Relative Age Effects and the Premier League’s Elite Player Performance Plan (EPPP): A Comparison of Birthdate Distributions Within and Between Age Groups

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of relative age effects (RAEs) within and between U18, U21 and professional senior squads, that compete in the highest (respective) leagues within England. Birthdate, playing position and age (years) of U18 (n = 487), U21 (n = 350), and senior (n = 396) players from squads competing in the highest divisions of their respective age groups were obtained. Moreover, nationality (UK or Non-UK) was recorded for U21 and senior players, with estimated market value also obtained for senior players. Chi-square tests, Cramer’s V and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were used to compare observed and expected birthdate distributions. A selection bias toward relatively older players was evident within U18 and U21 squads, across all positions. Furthermore, analysis of age bands within each age group also revealed an increase in the prevalence of RAEs throughout each age group. In contrast, analysis of senior squads revealed no significant deviations in birthdate distributions when considered as a whole sample, as separate age bands or by position. However, although non-significant, Q4 players were found to have the highest estimated market value. Results demonstrate RAEs are prevalent across U18 and U21 age groups at the highest level of competitive football within England, yet this is not representative of the birthdate distributions within senior squads. Ongoing research is needed to highlight the prevalence of RAEs within academies, particularly when these RAEs are not representative of birthdate distributions within professional senior squads.

Keywords

Talent development / Talent identification / Team sports / Competition / Underdog hypothesis

References

[1] Andrew M, Finnegan L, Datson N, Dugdale JH. Men are from quartile one, women are from? Relative age effect in European soccer and the influence of age, success, and playing status. Children, 2022, 9(11): 1747

[2] Ashworth J, Heyndels B. Selection bias and peer effects in team sports: the effect of age grouping on earnings of German soccer players. J Sports Econ, 2007, 8(4): 355-377

[3] Augste C, Lames M. The relative age effect and success in German elite U-17 football teams. J Sports Sci, 2011, 29(9): 983-987

[4] Baker J, Schorer J, Wattie N. Compromising talent: Issues in identifying and selecting talent in sport. Quest, 2018, 70(1): 48-63

[5] Bezuglov EN, Nikolaidis PT, Khaitin V, Usmanova E, Luibushkina A, Repetiuk A, Knechtle B. Prevalence of relative age effects in Russian soccer: the role of chronological age and performance. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2019

[6] Castillo D, Pérez-González B, Raya-González J, Fernández-Luna Á, Burillo P, Lago-Rodríguez Á. Selection and promotion processes are not associated by the relative age effect in an elite Spanish soccer academy. PLoS ONE, 2019, 14(7): Article ID: e0219945

[7] Cobley S, Baker J, Wattie N, McKenna J. Annual age-grouping and athlete development: a meta-analytical review of relative age effects in sport. Sports Med, 2009, 39(3): 235-256

[8] Cohen JStatistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences, 1988Hillsdale (NJ)L. Erlbaum Associates

[9] Cumming SP, Searle C, Hemsley JK, Haswell F, Edwards H, Scott S, Malina RM. Biological maturation, relative age and self-regulation in male professional academy soccer players: a test of the underdog hypothesis. Psychol Sport Exercise, 2018, 39: 147-153

[10] Doncaster G, Medina D, Drobnic F, Gómez-Díaz AJ, Unnithan V. Appreciating factors beyond the physical in talent identification and development: insights from the FC Barcelona sporting model. Front Sports Act Living, 2020, 2: 91

[11] Gibbs BG, Jarvis JA, Dufur MJ. The rise of the underdog? The relative age effect reversal among Canadian-born NHL hockey players: a reply to Nolan and Howell. Int Rev Sociol Sport, 2012, 47(5): 644-649

[12] Hancock D, Adler A, Cote J. A proposed theoretical model to explain relative age effects in sport. Eur J Sports Sci, 2013, 13: 630-637

[13] Helsen WF, Baker J, Michiels S, Schorer J, Van Winckel J, Williams AM. The relative age effect in European professional soccer: did ten years of research make any difference?. J Sports Sci, 2012, 30(15): 1665-1671

[14] Helsen WF, Thomis M, Starkes JL, Vrijens S, Ooms G, MacMaster C, Towlson C. Levelling the playing field: a new proposed method to address relative age-and maturity-related bias in soccer. Front Sports Act Living, 2021, 3: 24

[15] Kelly ATalent identification and development in youth soccer: a guide for researchers and practitioners, 20231New YorkRoutledge

[16] Kelly AL, Wilson MR, Jackson DT, Goldman DE, Turnnidge J, Côté J, Williams CA. A multidisciplinary investigation into “playing-up” a chronological age group in an English football academy. J Sports Sci, 2021, 39(8): 854-864

[17] Kelly AL, Wilson MR, Gough LA, Knapman H, Morgan P, Cole M, Williams CA. A longitudinal investigation into the relative age effect in an English professional football club: exploring the ‘underdog hypothesis’. Sci Med Football, 2020, 4(2): 111-118

[18] Lovell R, Towlson C, Parkin G, Portas M, Vaeyens R, Cobley S. Football player characteristics in English lower-league development programmes: the relationships between relative age, maturation, anthropometry and physical fitness. PLOSone, 2015, 10(9): Article ID: e0137238

[19] Lüdin D, Donath L, Romann M. Disagreement between talent scouts Implications for improved talent assessment in youth football. J Sports Sci, 2023, 41(8): 758-765

[20] Mann DL, van Ginneken PJMA. Age-ordered shirt numbering reduces the selection bias associated with the relative age effect. J Sports Sci, 2017, 35(8): 784-790

[21] McAuley ABT, Baker J, Johnston K, Doncaster G, Kelly AL. Selection and re-selection throughout a national talent pathway: exploring longitudinal relative age effects in Northern Ireland male soccer Research for Athlete and Youth Sport Development (RAYSD) lab, Birmingham City University. 2024. https://doi.org/10.3390/sports9070101

[22] McHugh ML. The chi-square test of independence. Biochemia Med, 2013, 23(2): 143-149

[23] Morganti G, Kelly AL, Apollaro G, Pantanella L, Esposito M, Grossi A, Ruscello B. Relative age effects and the youth-to-senior transition in Italian football: the underdog hypothesis versus knock-on effects of relative age. Sci Med Football, 2022, 7(4): 406-412

[24] Office for National Statistics. Number of live births by date, 1995 to 2014, in England and Wales. 2015. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/articles/howpopularisyourbirthday/2015-12-18#:~:text=September%2026%20was%20the%20most,other%202%20being%20early%20October. Accessed 20 July 2023.

[25] Padrón-Cabo A, Rey E, García-Soidán JL, Penedo-Jamardo E. Large scale analysis of relative age effect on professional soccer players in FIFA designated zones. Int J Perform Anal Sport, 2016, 16(1): 332-346

[26] Pedersen AV, Aune TK, Dalen T, Lorås H. Variations in the relative age effect with age and sex, and over time-Elite-level data from international soccer world cups. PLoS ONE, 2022, 17(4): Article ID: e0264813

[27] Pena-Gonzalez I, Fernandez-Fernandez J, Moya-Ramon M, Cervello E. Relative age effect, biological maturation, and coaches’ efficacy expectations in young male football players. Res Q Exerc Sport, 2018, 89(3): 373-379

[28] Peña-González I, Javaloyes A, Sarabia JM, Moya-Ramón M. Relative age-related differences between different competitive levels and field positions in young soccer players. Res Sports Med, 2021, 29(3): 254-264

[29] Premier League. Elite Player Performance Plan. 2011. https://www.goalreports.com/EPLPlan.pdf. Accessed 20 July 2023.

[30] Romann M, Javet M, Cobley S, Born D. How relative age effects associate with football players’ market values: Indicators of losing talent and wasting money. Sports, 2021, 9(7): 99

[31] Unnithan V, White J, Georgiou A, Iga J, Drust B. Talent identification in youth soccer. J Sports Sci, 2012, 30(15): 1719-1726

[32] Salinero JJ, Pérez B, Burillo P, Lesma ML. Relative age effect in European professional football: analysis by position. J Hum Sport Exercise, 2013, 8(4): 966-973

[33] Towlson C, Cobley S, Midgley AW, Garrett A, Parkin G, Lovell R. Relative age, maturation and physical biases on position allocation in elite-youth soccer. Int J Sports Med, 2017, 38(3): 201-209

[34] Wattie N, Schorer J, Baker J. The relative age effect in sport: a developmental systems model. Sports Med, 2015, 45: 83-94

[35] Yagüe JM, de la Rubia A, Sánchez-Molina J, Maroto-Izquierdo S, Molinero O. The relative age effect in the 10 best leagues of male professional football of the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA). J Sports Sci Med, 2018, 17(3): 409-416

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s)