Gray comprehensive assessment and optimal selection of water consumption forecasting model

Abstract

A comprehensive assessing method based on the principle of the gray system theory and gray relational grade analysis was put forward to optimize water consumption forecasting models. The method provides a better accuracy for the assessment and the optimal selection of the water consumption forecasting models. The results show that the forecasting model built on this comprehensive assessing method presents better self-adaptability and accuracy in forecasting.

Keywords

water consumption forecasting / gray system / relational grade analysis / comprehensive assessment

References

[1] LiuHong-bo, ZhangHong-wei. Comparison of the city water consumption short-term forecasting methods[J]. Transactions of Tianjin University, 2002, 8(3): 211-215(in Chinese)

[2] BuHamraS, SmaouiN, GabrM. The Box-Jenkins analysis and neural networks: forecasting and time series modeling [J]. Applied Mathematical Modeling, 2003, 27: 805-815

[3] YuanYi-xing, ZhangJie, XuHong-fu. Research on forecasting model of long and middle term municipal water consumption[J]. Water and Wastewater, 2004, 30(6): 102-105(in Chinese)

[4] ChakrabortyK, MohanC K. Forecasting the behavior of multivariate time series using neural networks[J]. Neural Networks, 1992, 5: 961-970

[5] ZhangG P. Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model[J]. Neurocomputing, 2003, 50: 159-175

[6] TangXiao-wo, ZhouZong-fang, ShiYong. The error bounds of combined forecasting[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 2002, 36(9): 997-1005

[7] ZhaoHong-binWater network system theory and analysis [M], 2003, Beijing, China Architecture Press: 25-27(in Chinese)

[8] ZhaoXiao-qing, NiuDong-Xiao. The power load forecasting model based on the optimal gray selection and its application [J]. Journal of Baoding Teachers College, 2002, 15(2): 12-15(in Chinese)

[9] DengJu-longBasic methods of grey system [M], 1987, Wuhan, Huazhong Polytechnic University Press: 1-56(in Chinese)

[10] LiuSi-feng, GouTian-bang, DanYao-guoGray system and applying [M], 2003, Beijing, Science Press: 35-36(in Chinese)

[11] XuZhong-xiang, WuGuo-ping, PengFang. Gray localized forecasting of oil and gas anomaly[J]. Journal of China University of Geosciences, 1998, 23(2): 158-161(in Chinese)