Post-fire growth increases do not necessarily indicate recovery in eastern Siberian Larix cajanderi forests

Abstract

Wildfire activity is intensifying across eastern Siberian larch forests, increasing the need for reliable assessment of post-fire recovery. Within-stand comparisons with pre-fire growth provide one measure of radial-growth recovery, but they may not reveal whether surviving trees track contemporaneous unburned growth or changes in climate–growth coupling. We therefore evaluated post-fire radial-growth trajectories of surviving Larix cajanderi trees against pair-specific unburned reference stands in the middle Kolyma River region. Two burned-reference pairs were analyzed using stage-based chronology comparisons and pair-specific tree-level linear mixed-effects models; MODIS active-fire records provided event-level fire context, and moving correlations with antecedent precipitation and warm-season temperature described temporal climate–growth coupling. Burned 1 increased relative to its own baseline, yet its burned/reference ratio declined from 1.22 before fire to 0.92–0.93 during recovery and late legacy. Mixed-effects contrasts indicated relative growth deficits of 25.5% and 33.1% in these stages, respectively, revealing delayed and progressively stronger suppression. Burned 2 showed a 46.4% relative deficit during the first two complete post-fire years, but its late-legacy contrast was + 6.9% and non-significant, indicating recovery toward rather than beyond the reference trajectory. Climate–growth coupling also differed between pairs: late-period precipitation coupling weakened at Burned 1 but recovered at Burned 2. These findings show that positive post-fire growth can mask persistent relative suppression and that local unburned trajectories can provide complementary context for interpreting radial-growth recovery beyond within-stand historical baselines.

Keywords

Tree-ring / Wildfires / Resilience / Climate response / Eastern Siberia

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Funding

Excellent Research Group Program for Tibetan Plateau Earth System(42588201)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(32061123008)

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Northeast Forestry University