A 1000-year tree-ring chronology from Pinus californiarum in Baja California, Mexico

Abstract

We present a 966-year (1050–2015 CE) ring-width chronology of Pinus californiarum D.K. Bailey from Baja California, Mexico, representing the longest published dendrochronological record for any pine species in the country. Despite pronounced anatomical and ecological challenges, including frequent missing rings and growth irregularities, the final chronology exhibits strong signal strength and robust cross-dating, enabling the assessment of hydroclimatic variability across multiple temporal scales. Radial growth is primarily controlled by winter precipitation, with significant positive responses to both instrumental precipitation and precipitation associated with atmospheric river activity during November–March. Growth is negatively related to maximum temperatures, indicating enhanced drought stress under warmer conditions. Correlations with reconstructed drought indices confirm a strong sensitivity to regional moisture availability. At larger scales, P. californiarum growth is significantly influenced by Pacific climate variability. Positive correlations with the Multivariate ENSO Index and two independent ENSO reconstructions reveal a nonstationary ENSO–growth relationship over the last millennium, characterized by a prolonged interval of weakened teleconnections between approximately 1300 and 1600 CE, followed by strengthened coupling after ~ 1700 CE. Spectral and wavelet analyses further indicate intermittent expression of ENSO-scale variability and lower-frequency modulation consistent with Pacific decadal processes. Together, these results demonstrate that P. californiarum integrates both high-frequency hydroclimatic variability and long-term shifts in Pacific climate forcing, highlighting its value as a sensitive paleoclimatic proxy for the northeastern Pacific region and underscoring the importance of conserving old-growth stands in extreme water-limited environments.

Keywords

Dendroclimatology / Tree longevity / Atmospheric rivers / ENSO / Mediterranean-type arid climate

References

[1] Bailey DK. A study of Pinus subsection cembroides I: the single-needled pinyons of the Californias and the Great Basin. Notes Roy Bot Gard Edinburgh. 1987, 44(2): 275-310.

[2] Beaudin, Di Lorenzo E, Miller AJ, Seo H, Joh Y (2023) Impact of extratropical Northeast Pacific SST on U.S. west coast precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 50(3): e2022GL102354. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102354

[3] Biondi F (2002a) NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology-Biondi-Mt. Laguna-PIJE -ITRDB CA610. [ca610.crn]. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. https://doi.org/10.25921/ecen-wz68 [accessed on 19.09.2025]

[4] Biondi F (2002b) NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology-Biondi-Santa Ana Mts. (New and Old)-PSMA-ITRDB CA613. [ca613.crn]. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. https://doi.org/10.25921/2wnf-3544[accessed on 19.09.2025]

[5] Borkotoky SS, Williams AP, Steinschneider S. Six hundred years of reconstructed atmospheric river activity along the US West Coast. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2023, 128(12. e2022JD038321

[6] Buck R, Ortega-Del Vecchyo D, Gehring C, Michelson R, Flores-Rentería D, Klein B, Whipple AV, Flores-Rentería L. Sequential hybridization may have facilitated ecological transitions in the Southwestern pinyon pine syngameon. New Phytol. 2023, 2376): 2435-2449.

[7] Bullock SH, Heath D. Growth rates and age of native palms in the Baja California desert. J Arid Environ. 2006, 67(3): 391-402.

[8] Bullock SH, Martijena NE, Webb RH, Turner RM. Twentieth century demographic changes in cirio and cardón in Baja California, México. J Biogeogr. 2005, 32(1): 127-143.

[9] Bullock SH, Salazar Ceseña JM, Rebman JP, Riemann H. Flora and vegetation of an isolated mountain range in the desert of Baja California. Southwest Nat. 2008, 53(1): 61-73.

[10] Bunn AG. A dendrochronology program library in R (dplR). Dendrochronologia. 2008, 26(2): 115-124.

[11] Chen XD, Leung LR. Response of landfalling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast to local sea surface temperature perturbations. Geophys Res Lett. 2020, 47(18. e2020GL089254

[12] Cole KL, Fisher J, Arundel ST, Cannella J, Swift S. Geographical and climatic limits of needle types of one- and two-needled pinyon pines. J Biogeogr. 2008, 352): 257-269.

[13] Cook ER. The decomposition of tree-ring series for environmental studies. Tree-Ring Bull. 1987, 47: 37-59

[14] Cook ER, Woodhouse CA, Eakin CM, Meko DM, Stahle DW. Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science. 2004, 306(5698): 1015-1018.

[15] Cook ER, Seager R, Heim RRJrVose RS, Herweijer C, Woodhouse C. Megadroughts in North America: placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long-term palaeoclimate context. J Quat Sci. 2010, 25(1): 48-61.

[16] Cook ER, Krusic PJ. Program ARSTAN: a tree-ring standardization program based on detrending and autoregressive time series modeling, with interactive graphics. 2005, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY

[17] Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas [CONANP] (2008) Plan de Manejo Área de Protección de Flora y Fauna Silvestre Valle de los Cirios. https://www.conanp.gob.mx/anp/consulta/VCiriosProgramaManejo08.pdf [accessed on 19.09.2025]

[18] Comisión Nacional del Agua [CONAGUA] (2025) Información Estadística Climatológica. https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/climatologia/informacion-climatologica/informacion-estadistica-climatologica [accessed on 19.09.2025]

[19] Dettinger MD, Ralph FM, Das T, Neiman PJ, Cayan DR. Atmospheric rivers, floods and the water resources of California. Water. 2011, 3(2): 445-478.

[20] Diario Oficial de la Federación [DOF] (2013) Acuerdo por el que se da a conocer el resumen del Programa de Manejo del Área de Protección de Flora y Fauna Silvestre Valle de los Cirios. https://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5294191&fecha=02/04/2013#gsc.tab=0[accessed on 19.09.2025]

[21] Díaz SC, Touchan R, Swetnam TW. A tree-ring reconstruction of past precipitation for Baja California Sur, Mexico. Int J Climatol. 2001, 21(8): 1007-1019.

[22] Díaz SC, Salinas-Zavala CA, Hernández-Vázquez S. Variability of rainfall from tropical cyclones in Northwestern México and its relation to SOI and PDO. Atmósfera. 2008, 21(2): 213-223

[23] Durazo R, Gaxiola-Castro G, Lavaniegos B, Castro-Valdez R, Gómez-Valdés J, Da S Mascarenhas JA. Oceanographic conditions west of the Baja California coast, 2002–2003: a weak El Niño and subarctic water enhancement. Cienc Mar. 2005, 31(3): 537-552.

[24] Earle JC (2025) The Gymnosperm Database. https://www.conifers.org/pi/Pinus_californiarum.php [accessed on 19.09.2025]

[25] Edvardsson J, Helama S, Rundgren M, Nielsen AB. The integrated use of dendrochronological data and paleoecological records from Northwest European peatlands and lakes for understanding long-term ecological and climatic changes—a review. Front Ecol Evol. 2022, 10. 781882

[26] Escobar-Flores JG, Lopez-Sanchez CA, Sandoval S, Marquez-Linares MA, Wehenkel C. Detection of Pinus monophylla forest in the Baja California desert by remote sensing. PeerJ PrePrints. 2017.

[27] Gershunov A, Shulgina T, Ralph FM, Lavers DA, Rutz JJ. Assessing the climate-scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting Western North America. Geophys Res Lett. 2017, 44(15): 7900-7908.

[28] González-Abraham C, Garcillán PP, Ezcurra E. Ecorregiones de la Península de Baja California: una síntesis. Bol Soc Bot Mex. 2010, 87: 69-82

[29] Grissino-Mayer HD. Evaluating crossdating accuracy: a manual and tutorial for the computer program COFECHA. Tree-Ring Res. 2001, 57(2): 205-221

[30] Gutiérrez-García G, Leavitt SW, Trouet V, Carriquiry JD. Tree ring-based historic hydroclimatic variability of the Baja California Peninsula. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2020, 125(24. e2020JD032675

[31] Holmes RL. Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree-Ring Bull. 1983, 43: 51-67

[32] Howard IM, Stahle DW, Dettinger MD, Poulsen C, Ralph FM, Torbenson MCA, Gershunov A. A 440-year reconstruction of heavy precipitation in California from blue oak tree rings. J Hydrometeorol. 2023, 243): 463-477.

[33] Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía [INEGI] (2024) Conjunto nacional de información edafológica. Escala 1:250 000 Serie III. Conjunto de datos vectoriales edafológico, Serie II. https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/biblioteca/ficha.html?upc=794551118313 [accessed on 19.09.2025]

[34] Izworska K, Muter E, Matulewski P, Zielonka T. Tree rings as an ecological indicator of the reaction of Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) to climate change and disturbance regime in the extreme environment of cliff forests. Ecol Indic. 2023, 148. 110102

[35] Jin D, Kirtman BP. The impact of ENSO periodicity on North Pacific SST variability. Clim Dyn. 2010, 34(7–8): 1015-1039.

[36] Li JB, Xie SP, Cook ER, Morales MS, Christie DA, Johnson NC, Chen FH, D’Arrigo R, Fowler AM, Gou XH, Fang KY. El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries. Nat Clim Change. 2013, 3(9): 822-826.

[37] Li JK, Peng JF, Wei XX, Peng M, Li X, Liu YM, Li JX. Stability assessment of tree ring growth of Pinus armandii Franch in response to climate change based on slope directions at the Lubanling in the Funiu Mountains, China. J Forestry Res. 2024, 35(1. 44

[38] Li T, Peng JF, Au TF, Li JR, Li JB, Zhang Y. Dendroclimatological study of Sabina saltuaria and Abies faxoniana in the mixed forests of the Qionglai Mountains, Eastern Tibetan Plateau. J Forestry Res. 2024, 35. 20

[39] Li TW, He B, Chen DL, Chen HW, Guo LL, Yuan WP, Fang KY, Shi F, Liu LY, Zheng H, Huang L, Wu XC, Hao XM, Zhao X, Jiang WG (2024a) Increasing sensitivity of tree radial growth to precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 51(16): e2024GL110003. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl110003

[40] Liu X, Ma XH, Chang P, Jia YL, Fu D, Xu GZ, Wu LX, Saravanan R, Patricola-DiRosario CM. Ocean fronts and eddies force atmospheric rivers and heavy precipitation in Western North America. Nat Commun. 2021, 12: 1268.

[41] Liu YX, Zhang HL, Chen F, Hadad M, Roig F, Zhao XE, Wang SJ, Yue WP, Chen YP. Reconstruction of drought at the desert margin in Northern China over the past 279 years using tree-ring widths. J Forestry Res. 2024, 351): 92.

[42] MacDonald GM, Case RA. Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett. 2005, 328. L08703

[43] Martijena NE. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and precipitation history in Baja California: reconstruction using tree ring records. Geofís Int. 2003, 423351-362

[44] McCabe GJ, Palecki MA, Betancourt JL. Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004, 101124136-4141.

[45] Meko DM, Touchan R, Díaz JV, Griffin D, Woodhouse CA, Castro CL, Carillo C, Leavitt SW. Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, cool-season precipitation reconstructed from earlywood width of Abies concolor tree rings. J Geophys Res Biogeosci. 2013, 118(4): 1660-1673.

[46] Minnich RA, Franco Vizcaino ER, Dezzani RJ. The El Niño/southern oscillation and precipitation variability in Baja California. Mexico. Atmósfera.. 2000, 13(1): 1-20

[47] Montes JR, Peláez P, Moreno-Letelier A, Gernandt DS. Coalescent-based species delimitation in North American pinyon pines using low-copy nuclear genes and plastomes. Am J Bot. 2022, 109(5): 706-726.

[48] Moran RV. Case TJ, Cody ML. Relictual northern plants on peninsular mountain tops. Biogeography of the Sea of Cortez. 1983, Berkeley, University of California Press408410

[49] Neukom R, Steiger N, Gómez-Navarro JJ, Wang JH, Werner JP. No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era. Nature. 2019, 571(7766): 550-554.

[50] Newell RE, Newell NE, Zhu Y, Scott C. Tropospheric rivers? a pilot study. Geophys Res Lett. 1992, 19(24): 2401-2404.

[51] Newman M, Compo GP, Alexander MA. ENSO-forced variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. J Clim. 2003, 16(23): 3853-3857.

[52] Pavía EG, Graef F, Fuentes-Franco R. Recent ENSO–PDO precipitation relationships in the Mediterranean California border region. Atmos Sci Lett. 2016, 17(4): 280-285.

[53] Payne AE, Demory ME, Leung LR, Ramos AM, Shields CA, Rutz JJ, Siler N, Villarini G, Hall A, Ralph FM. Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change. Nat Rev Earth Environ. 2020, 1(3): 143-157.

[54] R Core Team (2025) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. https://www.R-project.org/ [accessed 19.09.2025]

[55] Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14): 2002JD002670. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd002670

[56] Rhode D. Early Holocene juniper woodland and chaparral taxa in the central Baja California Peninsula, Mexico. Quat Res. 2002, 57(1): 102-108.

[57] Riemann H, Ezcurra E. Plant endemism and natural protected areas in the peninsula of Baja California, Mexico. Biol Conserv. 2005, 122(1): 141-150.

[58] Sarris D, Christodoulakis D. Topographic and climatic effects on Pinus halepensis sl growth at its drought tolerance margins under climatic change. J Forestry Res. 2024, 35. 102

[59] Schulz M, Mudelsee M. REDFIT: estimating red-noise spectra directly from unevenly spaced paleoclimatic time series. Comput Geosci. 2002, 28(3): 421-426.

[60] Servicio Geológico Mexicano [SGM] (2015) Carta geológica-minera Punta San Antonio H11–9 Baja California. Servicio Geológico Mexicano, Pachuca, México. https://www.sgm.gob.mx/GeoInfoMexGobMx/privacidadintegral.html [Accessed on 19.09.2025]

[61] Shen ZL, Wang SJ, Chen F, Zhang HL, Zhao XE, Chen YP, Hu M. Decreasing productivity of pine forests on the southern edge of the Mongolian Plateau as indicated by tree rings. J Forestry Res. 2024, 35(1): 74.

[62] Speer JH (2010) Fundamentals of tree-ring research. University of Arizona Press, p 508

[63] St George S, Ault TR, Torbenson MCA. The rarity of absent growth rings in Northern Hemisphere forests outside the American Southwest. Geophys Res Lett. 2013, 40143727-3731.

[64] Stahle DW, Cook ER, Burnette DJ, Torbenson MCA, Howard IM, Griffin D, Diaz JV, Cook BI, Williams AP, Watson E, Sauchyn DJ, Pederson N, Woodhouse CA, Pederson GT, Meko D, Coulthard B, Crawford CJ. Dynamics, variability, and change in seasonal precipitation reconstructions for North America. J Clim. 2020, 33(8): 3173-3195.

[65] Steinschneider S, Ho M, Williams AP, Cook ER, Lall U. A 500-year tree ring-based reconstruction of extreme cold-season precipitation and number of atmospheric river landfalls across the Southwestern United States. Geophys Res Lett. 2018, 45(11): 5672-5680.

[66] Stekhoven DJ, Bühlmann P. MissForest—non-parametric missing value imputation for mixed-type data. Bioinformatics. 2012, 28(1): 112-118.

[67] Stokes MA, Smiley TL. An Introduction to Tree Ring Dating. 1968, Chicago, University of Chicago Press73

[68] Torbenson MCA, Stahle DW, Howard IM, Burnette DJ, Villanueva-Díaz J, Cook ER, Griffin D. Multidecadal modulation of the ENSO teleconnection to precipitation and tree growth over subtropical North America. Paleoceanogr Paleoclimatol. 2019, 34(5): 886-900.

[69] Torbenson MCA, Stahle DW, Cook ER, Cook BI, Büntgen U, Chen F, Tejedor E, Stagge JH, Trnka M, Burnette DJ, Yue WP, Esper J (2025) Disruption of drought teleconnections between ENSO-influenced regions around 1700 CE. Geophys Res Lett 52(14): e2025GL115600. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl115600

[70] Trouet V. Tree story: the history of the world written in rings. 2020, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press246

[71] Trouet V, Van Oldenborgh GJ. KNMI climate explorer: a web-based research tool for high-resolution paleoclimatology. Tree Ring Res. 2013, 69(1): 3-13.

[72] Vieira J, Carvalho A, Campelo F. Tree growth under climate change: evidence from xylogenesis timings and kinetics. Front Plant Sci. 2020, 11. 90

[73] Villanueva-Díaz J, McPherson GR (1996) Reconstruction of precipitation and PDSI from tree-ring chronologies developed in mountains of New Mexico, USA and Sonora, Mexico. Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, Tucson, USA. https://repository.arizona.edu/bitstream/handle/10150/297002/hwr_26-045-054.pdf?sequence=1[accessed on 19.09.2025]

[74] Villanueva–Díaz J, Rivera–Huerta H, Zúñiga–Vásquez JM, Cabral–Alemán C, Bullock SH (2026) Climatic response of conifer species in Baja California, Mexico. Agric. For. Meteorol 381:111095. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111095

[75] Walkowiak AM, Solana E. Distribución estacional de lluvias en Baja California. México. Análisis De Probabilidades. Atmósfera.. 1989, 2(4): 209-218

[76] Wang H, Zhang JP, Wei BY, Qiao Q, Zhang WT, Ning YC, Liu CL. The effects of climate change on Pinus tabulaeformis radial growth in the Xiaowutai Mountains, Northern China. J for Res. 2024, 35(1. 140

[77] Warner MD, Mass CF. Changes in the climatology, structure, and seasonality of Northeast Pacific atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate simulations. J Hydrometeorol. 2017, 188): 2131-2141.

[78] Wells PV. Pleistocene macrofossil records of four-needled pinyon or juniper encinal in the Northern Vizcaino desert. Baja California Del Norte. Madroño.. 2000, 1: 189-194

[79] Williams AP, Allen CD, Macalady AK, Griffin D, Woodhouse CA, Meko DM, Swetnam TW, Rauscher SA, Seager R, Grissino-Mayer HD, Dean JS, Cook ER, Gangodagamage C, Cai M, McDowell NG. Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Nat Clim Change. 2013, 3(3): 292-297.

[80] Yang ZQ, DeFlorio MJ, Sengupta A, Wang JB, Castellano CM, Gershunov A, Guirguis K, Slinskey E, Guan B, Delle Monache L, Ralph FM. Seasonality and climate modes influence the temporal clustering of unique atmospheric rivers in the Western U.S.. Commun Earth Environ. 2024, 5. 734

[81] Zang C, Biondi F. Treeclim: an R package for the numerical calibration of proxy-climate relationships. Ecography. 2015, 38(4): 431-436.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

Northeast Forestry University