Modeling potential habitat distribution of scots pine under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Global climate change is impacting organisms and ecosystems on a wide scale, with increasingly visible effects. This ongoing process is anticipated to significantly threaten species and populations, especially plants that lack mobility, potentially causing large-scale losses in the near future. To mitigate these impacts, it is essential to understand how long-lived forest trees will respond to climate shifts and to facilitate necessary migration mechanisms through human intervention. This study aims to model the suitable habitat distribution of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), a crucial forest tree species in Türkiye, under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for the present and future years (2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100) using the Maxent entropy model, with mapping support from ArcGIS software. Habitat suitability was analyzed with 21 parameters (19 bioclimatic and 2 topographic). Jackknife test results indicated that Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter (Bio9) and Mean Temperature of the Warmest Quarter (Bio10) were the most influential parameters on the species’ distribution. The findings showed that under the SSP245 scenario, the suitable habitat for Scots pine is projected to decline to 83.63% of its current range by 2060, then increase to 106.02% by 2100. For the SSP585 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to 81.89% by 2060 and reach 96.13% by 2100. Populations in Türkiye’s southern and Marmara regions face high risks of near-total loss. To sustain Scots pine in new suitable habitats, adjustments to current forest management plans and silvicultural practices are needed to align with climate change projections.

Keywords

Scots pine / Climate change / Maxent / Habitat suitability / Bioclimatic factors

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