Assessing the effectiveness of large-scale ecological restoration programs: a spatiotemporal analysis of ecological efficiency in forest and landscape restoration

Abstract

Ecological restoration is a crucial measure to address environmental degradation and climate change, while ecological efficiency provides a comprehensive framework to evaluate restoration outcomes. Using panel data from 26 provinces in China (2003–2023), this study develops a forestry-oriented ecological efficiency evaluation system, encompassing resource and socio-economic inputs, expected outputs, and undesirable outputs. The super-efficiency SBM model is applied to assess the ecological efficiency of China’s Shan-Shui Initiative system, while Moran’s I, gravity center migration, and standard deviation ellipse methods are employed to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological efficiency. The results show a significant increase in ecological efficiency since 2015, with notable disparities among provinces. Eastern provinces generally exhibit higher ecological efficiency, while central and northeastern regions lag behind. The spatial clustering of ecological efficiency is particularly pronounced after 2014 (Moran’s I=0.3607, p<0.001), indicating the effectiveness of cross-provincial coordinated ecological interventions. Furthermore, in recent years, the fluctuations of the ecological efficiency gravity center have decreased, while the area of the standard deviation ellipse has expanded, and high-efficiency zones have broadened, reflecting a growing balance in ecological efficiency across regions. The spatial balance of ecological efficiency across China shows positive trends, with significant improvements in the northwest and stabilization in the eastern regions. Key state-owned forest areas, such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia, exhibit heterogeneous trajectories but generally maintain lower efficiency levels. This study underscores the need for region-specific governance and continuous ecological investment to enhance forest and landscape restoration. It provides quantitative evidence for the effectiveness of China’s Shan-Shui Initiative and explores the implications of integrated ecological restoration models, such as the Shan-Shui Initiative, for global ecological governance.

Keywords

Ecological restoration / Ecological efficiency / Super-efficiency SBM / Shan-Shui initiative / Standard deviation ellipse

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