Effects of climate change on the richness distribution of Phyllostachys species in China

Abstract

Climate change disrupts the distribution of species and restructures their richness patterns. The genus of Asian bamboo, Phyllostachys, possesses significant ecological and economic values, and represents the most species-rich genus in the Bambusoideae subfamily. Based on the distribution data of 46 species and 20 environmental variables, we used the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS calculations to simulate current and future potential richness distributions under three distinct CO₂ emission scenarios. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had a good predictive ability, with a mean area under the working characteristic curve (AUC value) of 0.91 for all species. The main environmental variables that impacted the future distribution of most Phyllostachys species were elevation, variations of seasonal precipitation, and mean diurnal range. Phyllostachys species are currently concentrated in southeastern China. Under future climate projections, 18 species exhibited significant habitat contraction across three or more future climate scenarios, but suitable habitats for other species will expand. This enhancement is most pronounced under the extreme climate scenario (2090s-SSP585), primarily driven by high species gains contributing to elevated turnover values across scenarios. The center of maximum richness will progressively shift southwestward over time. Predictive modeling of Phyllostachys richness distribution dynamics under climate change enhances our understanding of its biogeography and informs strategic introduction programs to bamboo management and augments China's carbon sequestration capacity.

Keywords

Climate change / MaxEnt model / Richness distribution pattern / Phyllostachys

References

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