Climate change impacts on Taxus baccata distribution and conservation

Abstract

This study looks at the impact of climate change on the future distribution of Taxus baccata L., a species under threat. It examines how altitudinal changes may influence distribution, projecting scenarios to 2100 using the SSPs 585 SSPs 245 scenarios in 20-year intervals. The results show a contraction in distribution in areas such as in Iceland and the United Kingdom, with certain extreme points disappearing. Simultaneously, new suitable areas are expected to emerge in select regions of Asia. The study underscores the significant changes anticipated in the distribution of T. baccata due to global climate change. It suggests that the threshold for addressing climate change on this particular species has been exceeded, and emphasizes the need for concerted efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts on ecosystems and organisms. As climate change affects various aspects of life, the study advocates for sector-wide plans. These would include efficient resource utilization, selecting genotypes for afforestation of this species with lower water requirements, incorporating climate change predictions into management plans, conserving biological and genetic diversity, and developing in-situ and ex-situ conservation strategies. Anticipation of future climate changes and corresponding measures in response are crucial to minimizing the impact on this species. The study recommends establishing mixed forests composed of species resilient to a range of climate scenarios, thereby enhancing forest continuity across regions with varying degrees of climate impact. Genetic diversity is an important defense mechanism important to preserving it. Global climate change will result in significant alterations in the distribution of certain species, potentially causing population declines. Intervention is required to support the adaptation of vulnerable species, necessitating forward-looking strategies that anticipate shifts in their habitat suitability. This study emphasizes the implications of climate change for T. baccata and underscores the urgency of targeted conservation efforts to protect its populations and ensure long-term persistence.

The online version is available at https://link.springer.com/.

Corresponding editor: Tao Xu.

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Keywords

Global climate change / Taxus baccata / SSPs 245 / SSPs 585

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