Climate change impacts on Taxus baccata distribution and conservation

Abstract

This study looks at the impact of climate change on the future distribution of Taxus baccata L., a species under threat. It examines how altitudinal changes may influence distribution, projecting scenarios to 2100 using the SSPs 585 SSPs 245 scenarios in 20-year intervals. The results show a contraction in distribution in areas such as in Iceland and the United Kingdom, with certain extreme points disappearing. Simultaneously, new suitable areas are expected to emerge in select regions of Asia. The study underscores the significant changes anticipated in the distribution of T. baccata due to global climate change. It suggests that the threshold for addressing climate change on this particular species has been exceeded, and emphasizes the need for concerted efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts on ecosystems and organisms. As climate change affects various aspects of life, the study advocates for sector-wide plans. These would include efficient resource utilization, selecting genotypes for afforestation of this species with lower water requirements, incorporating climate change predictions into management plans, conserving biological and genetic diversity, and developing in-situ and ex-situ conservation strategies. Anticipation of future climate changes and corresponding measures in response are crucial to minimizing the impact on this species. The study recommends establishing mixed forests composed of species resilient to a range of climate scenarios, thereby enhancing forest continuity across regions with varying degrees of climate impact. Genetic diversity is an important defense mechanism important to preserving it. Global climate change will result in significant alterations in the distribution of certain species, potentially causing population declines. Intervention is required to support the adaptation of vulnerable species, necessitating forward-looking strategies that anticipate shifts in their habitat suitability. This study emphasizes the implications of climate change for T. baccata and underscores the urgency of targeted conservation efforts to protect its populations and ensure long-term persistence.

Keywords

Global climate change / Taxus baccata / SSPs 245 / SSPs 585

References

[1] Abramoff RZ, Ciais P, Zhu P, Hasegawa T, Wakatsuki H, Makowski D. Adaptation strategies strongly reduce the future impacts of climate change on simulated crop yields. Earth’s Future, 2023, 11(4): e2022EF003190

[2] Afifa AK, Hussain N, Ashraf MH, Saleem MZ. Air pollution and climate change as grand challenges to sustainability. Sci Total Environ, 2024, 928 172370

[3] Ahmadi K, Alavi SJ, Amiri GZ, Hosseini SM, Serra-Diaz JM, Svenning JC. The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxusbaccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran). Int J Biometeorol, 2020, 64(91451-1462

[4] Alavi SJ, Ahmadi K, Hosseini SM, Tabari M, Nouri Z. The response of English yew (Taxusbaccata L.) to climate change in the Caspian Hyrcanian Mixed Forest ecoregion. Reg Environ Change, 2019, 19(5): 1495-1506

[5] Austin M. Species distribution models and ecological theory: a critical assessment and some possible new approaches. Ecol Model, 2007, 200(1–2): 1-19

[6] Bach W. Fossil fuel resources and their impacts on environment and climate. Int J Hydrog Energy, 1981, 6(2): 185-201

[7] Beltran RS, Burns JM. Convergence of biannual moulting strategies across birds and mammals. Proc Biol Sci, 2018, 285: 20180318

[8] Bernal-Escobar M, Speer JH, Coombs L, Feeley KJ. Growth rates of three common South Florida tree species affected by climate change and urbanization. J Forestry Res, 2025, 36(1): 61

[9] Calvia G, Hidalgo PJ, López-Tirado J, Farris E, Fenu G, Bacchetta G. From Current to potential distribution: the case of Taxus Baccata (Taxaceae, Pinales) on the island of Sardinia (Italy). Plant Biosyst Int J Deal Aspects Plant Biol, 2024, 158(4808-822

[10] Carey HV, Andrews MT, Martin SL. Mammalian hibernation: cellular and molecular responses to depressed metabolism and low temperature. Physiol Rev, 2003, 83(41153-1181

[11] Cavin L, Jump AS. Highest drought sensitivity and lowest resistance to growth suppression are found in the range core of the tree Fagussylvatica L. not the equatorial range edge. Glob Chang Biol, 2017, 23(1): 362-379

[12] Chapman S, Watson JEM, Salazar A, Thatcher M, McAlpine CA. The impact of urbanization and climate change on urban temperatures: a systematic review. Landsc Ecol, 2017, 32(10): 1921-1935

[13] Chhetri PK, Gaddis KD, Cairns DM. Predicting the suitable habitat of treeline species in the Nepalese Himalayas under climate change. Mt Res Dev, 2018, 38(2): 153

[14] Dai AG, Zhao TB, Chen J. Climate change and drought: a precipitation and evaporation perspective. Curr Clim Change Rep, 2018, 4(3301-312

[15] Deng W, Zhang HE, Feng QY, Wu LP, Li HM, Li ZY. Investigation of summer temperature patterns of Ficus altissima in southern subtropical China. J Forestry Res, 2025, 36(1): 72

[16] Enríquez-de-Salamanca Á, Díaz-Sierra R, Martín-Aranda RM, Santos MJ. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation. Environ Impact Assess Rev, 2017, 64: 87-96

[17] ESRI (2017) ESRI: Environmental Systems Research Institute. ArcGIS Desktop: Release 10.5. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California

[18] EUFORGEN (2020) Taxus baccata distribution and ecology database. European Forest Genetic Resources Programme (EUFORGEN). Retrieved from https://www.euforgen.org/species/taxus-baccata

[19] Feng JY, Li S, Huang C, Tang FR, Li Y, He GW, Zhang XL, Chen FS. Effects of climate change, land use/cover change, and interactions on ecosystem services in Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve of Jiangxi Province. China J Forestry Res, 2025, 36(166

[20] Fischer M, Rounsevell M, Rando ATM, Mader A, Church A, Elbakidze M, Elias V, Hahn T, Harrison PA, Hauck J, Sandstrom C, Pinto IS, Visconti P, Zimmermann NE, Christie M, Martin-López B, Ring I (2018) The regional assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services for Europe and Central Asia: Summary for policymakers. IPBES Secretariat. https://research.aber.ac.uk/cy/publications/the-regional-assessment-report-on-biodiversity-and-ecosystem-serv

[21] Gajurel JP, Werth S, Shrestha KK, Scheidegger C. Species distribution modeling of Taxus wallichiana (Himalayan yew) in Nepal Himalaya. Asian J Conser Bio, 2014, 3(2127-134

[22] Gómez-Pineda E, Sáenz-Romero C, Ortega-Rodríguez JM, Blanco-García A, Madrigal-Sánchez X, Lindig-Cisneros R, Lopez-Toledo L, Pedraza-Santos ME, Rehfeldt GE. Suitable climatic habitat changes for Mexican conifers along altitudinal gradients under climatic change scenarios. Ecol Appl, 2020, 30(2 e02041

[23] Gritti ES, Smith B, Sykes MT. Vulnerability of Mediterranean Basin ecosystems to climate change and invasion by exotic plant species. J Biogeogr, 2006, 33(1): 145-157

[24] Hamann A, Wang TL. Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia. Ecology, 2006, 87(11): 2773-2786

[25] Hansen G, Stone D. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change. Nat Clim Change, 2016, 6(5): 532-537

[26] Heller NE, Zavaleta ES. Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol Conserv, 2009, 142(1): 14-32

[27] Hobson KA, Norris DR, Kardynal KJ, Yohannes E (2019) Animal migration: a context for using new techniques and approaches. In: Tracking animal migration with stable isotopes. Academic Press, pp 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-814723-8.00001-5

[28] Huttunen S, Kinnunen H, Laakso K. Impact of increased UV-B on plant ecosystems. Chemosphere, 1998, 36(4–5): 829-833

[29] Iverson LR, Prasad AM. Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US. For Ecol Manag, 2002, 155(1–3): 205-222

[30] Kogan F, Adamenko T, Guo W. Global and regional drought dynamics in the climate warming era. Remote Sens Lett, 2013, 4(4): 364-372

[31] Krishnan R, Shrestha AB, Ren G, Rajbhandari R, Saeed S, Sanjay J, Syed MA, Vellore R, Xu Y, You Q, Ren Y. Wester P, Mishra A, Mukherji A, Shrestha AB. Unravelling climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Rapid warming in the mountains and increasing extremes. The Hindu Kush Himalaya assessment: mountains, climate change, sustainability and people, 2019, Berlin, Springer5797

[32] Li GQ, Huang JH, Guo H, Du S. Projecting species loss and turnover under climate change for 111 Chinese tree species. For Ecol Manag, 2020, 477 118488

[33] Li HQ, Xing LG, Sun XP. Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus wallichiana var mairei under climate change in China using Maxent modeling. Pak J Bot, 2022, 54(4): 1305-1310

[34] Li PX, Zhu WQ, Xie ZY, Qiao K. Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountain region. J Forestry Res, 2020, 31(6): 2255-2272

[35] Linares JC. Shifting limiting factors for population dynamics and conservation status of the endangered English yew (Taxus baccata L., Taxaceae). For Ecol Manag, 2013, 291: 119-127

[36] Lissovsky AA, Dudov SV, Obolenskaya EV. Species-distribution modeling: advantages and limitations of its application 1 general approaches. Biol Bull Rev, 2021, 11(3): 254-264

[37] Liu J, Möller M, Provan J, Gao LM, Poudel RC, Li DZ. Geological and ecological factors drive cryptic speciation of yews in a biodiversity hotspot. New Phytol, 2013, 199(4): 1093-1108

[38] López ID, Figueroa A, Corrales JC. Multi-dimensional data preparation: a process to support vulnerability analysis and climate change adaptation. IEEE Access, 2020, 8: 87228-87242

[39] Manabe S. Role of greenhouse gas in climate change. Tellus A Dyn Meteor Oceanogr, 2019, 71(1): 1620078

[40] McCarthy MP, Best MJ, Betts RA. Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects. Geophys Res Lett, 2010, 37(9L09705

[41] Miller J. Species distribution modeling. Geogr. Compass, 2010, 4(6490-509

[42] Montzka SA, Dlugokencky EJ, Butler JH. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and climate change. Nature, 2011, 476(7358): 43-50

[43] Na XD, Zhou HT, Zang SY, Wu CS, Li WL, Li M. Maximum Entropy modeling for habitat suitability assessment of Red-crowned crane. Ecol Indic, 2018, 91: 439-446

[44] O’Brien CL, Robinson SA, Pancost RD, Sinninghe Damsté JS, Schouten S, Lunt DJ, Alsenz H, Bornemann A, Bottini C, Brassell SC, Farnsworth A, Forster A, Huber BT, Inglis GN, Jenkyns HC, Linnert C, Littler K, Markwick P, McAnena A, Mutterlose J, Naafs BDA, Püttmann W, Sluijs A, van Helmond NAGM, Vellekoop J, Wagner T, Wrobel NE. Cretaceous Sea-surface temperature evolution: constraints from TEX86 and planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes. Earth Sci Rev, 2017, 172: 224-247

[45] Oliva M, Maffia A, Marra F, Canino F, Battaglia S, Mallamaci C, Muscolo A. The complex impacts of fire on soil ecosystems: Insights from the 2021 Aspromonte National Park wildfire. J for Res, 2025, 36(1): 68

[46] Phillips SJ, Dudík M. Modeling of species distributions with maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 2008, 31(2161-175

[47] Ponce-Reyes R, Reynoso-Rosales VH, Watson JE, VanDerWal J, Fuller RA, Pressey RL, Possingham HP. Vulnerability of cloud forest reserves in Mexico to climate change. Nat Clim Chang, 2012, 2(6): 448-452

[48] Qian MJ, Rosenqvist E, Prinsen E, Pescheck F, Flygare AM, Kalbina I, Jansen MAK, Strid Å. Downsizing in plants-UV light induces pronounced morphological changes in the absence of stress. Plant Physiol, 2021, 187(1): 378-395

[49] Rathore P, Roy A, Karnatak H. Modelling the vulnerability of Taxus wallichiana to climate change scenarios in South East Asia. Ecol Indic, 2019, 102: 199-207

[50] Rosa EA, Rudel TK, York R, Jorgenson AK, Dietz T. The human (anthropogenic) driving forces of global climate change. Clim Change Soc, 2015, 2: 32-60

[51] Rosenzweig C, Neofotis P. Detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change impacts. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change, 2013, 4(2): 121-150

[52] Rounsevell M (2018) Summary for policymakers of the regional and subregional assessment of biodiversity and ecosystem services for Europe and Central Asia. 2018 March. In: IPBES-6 Plenary. https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/summary-for-policymakers-of-the-regional-and-subregional-assessme

[53] Rounsevell M, Fischer M, Torre-Marin Rando M, Mader A (2018) The IPBES regional assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services for Europe and Central Asia. In: Secretariat of the intergovernmental science-policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services. https://boris.unibe.ch/185020/

[54] Somogyi Z. Projected effects of climate change on the carbon stocks of European beech (Fagussylvatica L.) forests in Zala County Hungary. For J, 2016, 62(1): 3-14

[55] Strid A, Chow WS, Anderson JM. UV-B damage and protection at the molecular level in plants. Photosynth Res, 1994, 39(3): 475-489

[56] Wang XY, Zhao CY, Jia QY. Impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems in NorthEast China. Adv Clim Change Res, 2013, 4(4): 230-241

[57] Weart SR. The idea of anthropogenic global climate change in the 20th century. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change, 2010, 1(1): 67-81

[58] Williams JJ, Newbold T. Local climatic changes affect biodiversity responses to land use: a review. Divers Distrib, 2020, 26(1): 76-92

[59] Wu XT, Wang MQ, Li XY, Yan YD, Dai MJ, Xie WY, Zhou XF, Zhang DL, Wen YF. Response of distribution patterns of two closely related species in Taxus genus to climate change since last inter-glacial. Ecol Evol, 2022, 12(10): e9302

[60] Wuebbles DJ, Jain AK. Concerns about climate change and the role of fossil fuel use. Fuel Process Technol, 2001, 71(1–399-119

[61] Yuan XN, Li SE, Chen JL, Yu HC, Yang TY, Wang CY, Huang SY, Chen HC, Ao X. Impacts of global climate change on agricultural production: a comprehensive review. Agronomy, 2024, 14(7): 1360

[62] Zachos JC, Dickens GR, Zeebe RE. An early Cenozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics. Nature, 2008, 451(7176279-283

[63] Zhao XN, Zheng YT, Wang W, Wang Z, Zhang QF, Liu JC, Zhang CT. Habitat suitability evaluation of different forest species in Lvliang Mountain by combining prior knowledge and MaxEnt model. Forests, 2023, 14(2438

[64] Zhou YC, Hu JH, Xie GH, Shao YK, Liu M. Simulation of potential suitable areas and analysis of natural reserves for four species of Taxus in Southern China. Front Glob Change, 2025, 8: 1346224

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

Northeast Forestry University