Habitat suitability modeling of a nearly extinct rosewood species (Dalbergia odorifera) under current, and future climate conditions

Abstract

The influence of global climate change on endangered species is of growing concern, especially for rosewood species that are in urgent need of protection and restoration. Ecological niche models are commonly used to evaluate probable species’ distribution under climate change and contribute to decision-making to define efficient management strategies. A model was developed to forecast which habitat was most likely appropriate for the Dalbergia odorifera. We screened the main climatic variables that describe the current geographic distribution of the species based on maximum entropy modelling (Maxent). We subsequently assessed its potential future distribution under moderate (RCP_2.6) and severe (RCP_8.5) climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. The precipitation ranges of the wettest month and the warmest quarter are the primary limiting factors for the current distribution of D. odorifera among the climatic predictors. Climate change will be expected to have beneficial effects on the distribution range of D. odorifera. In conclusion, the main limits for the distribution of D. odorifera are determined by the level of precipitation and human activities. The results of this study indicate that the coasts of southern China and Chongqing will play a key role in the protection and restoration of D. odorifera in the future.

Keywords

Climate change / Dalbergia odorifera / Habitat suitability / Model tunning / Forest conservation

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