Reduced growth of Qinghai spruce due to snow cover loss in high Asian elevations since the late 20th century

Abstract

Snowpack in the Northern Hemisphere is gradually disappearing due to rising global temperatures. Snowmelt water is a critical water resource for vegetation in the arid areas of the Northeast Tibetan Plateau. We used a random forest model to analyze the main factors influencing tree growth and using structural equation modelling to examine the pathways through which snowpack affected vegetation growth. The results show that soil moisture, controlled by snowmelt water, dominates the radial growth of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.). At the same time, snow melt on vegetation is affected by both elevation and land cover. Atmospheric circulation patterns regulated by North Atlantic sea surface temperatures determine spring snowpack variability in this area. In future scenarios based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, snowpack will continue to decrease, presenting significant constraints to the growth of vegetation.

Keywords

Northeast Tibetan Plateau / Tree rings / Snowpack / Vegetation growth

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