Reduced growth of Qinghai spruce due to snow cover loss in high Asian elevations since the late 20th century

Abstract

Snowpack in the Northern Hemisphere is gradually disappearing due to rising global temperatures. Snowmelt water is a critical water resource for vegetation in the arid areas of the Northeast Tibetan Plateau. We used a random forest model to analyze the main factors influencing tree growth and using structural equation modelling to examine the pathways through which snowpack affected vegetation growth. The results show that soil moisture, controlled by snowmelt water, dominates the radial growth of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.). At the same time, snow melt on vegetation is affected by both elevation and land cover. Atmospheric circulation patterns regulated by North Atlantic sea surface temperatures determine spring snowpack variability in this area. In future scenarios based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, snowpack will continue to decrease, presenting significant constraints to the growth of vegetation.

Keywords

Northeast Tibetan Plateau / Tree rings / Snowpack / Vegetation growth

References

[1] Barnett TP, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP. Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature, 2005, 438(7066): 303-309

[2] Belda S, Pipia L, Morcillo-Pallarés P, Rivera-Caicedo JP, Amin E, De Grave C, Verrelst J. DATimeS: a machine learning time series GUI toolbox for gap-filling and vegetation phenology trends detection. Environ Model Softw, 2020, 127 104666

[3] Brown ME, de Beurs KM, Marshall M. Global phenological response to climate change in crop areas using satellite remote sensing of vegetation, humidity and temperature over 26years. Remote Sens Environ, 2012, 126: 174-183

[4] Cao HH, Chen F, Hu M, Hou TY, Zhao XE, Wang SJ, Zhang HL. Tree-ring insights into past and future streamflow variations in Beijing, northern China. Water Resour Res, 2025

[5] Chen YP, Chen F, Zhang HL. A tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction since 1760 CE from northeastern Tibetan Plateau. China Atmosphere, 2021, 12(4): 416

[6] Chen F, Man WM, Wang SJ, Esper J, Meko D, Büntgen U, Yuan YJ, Hadad M, Hu M, Zhao XE, Roig FA, Fang OY, Chen YP, Zhang HL, Shang HM, Yu SL, Luo X, He DM, Chen FH. Southeast Asian ecological dependency on Tibetan Plateau streamflow over the last millennium. Nat Geosci, 2023, 16(121151-1158

[7] Chen F, Wang SJ, Dong QJ, Esper J, Büntgen U, Meko D, Linderholm HW, Wang T, Yue WP, Zhao XE, Hadad M, González-Reyes Á, Chen FH. Role of Pacific Ocean climate in regulating runoff in the source areas of water transfer projects on the Pacific Rim. NPJ Clim Atmos Sci, 2024, 7: 153

[8] Chen F, Wang T, Zhao XE, Esper J, Ljungqvist FC, Büntgen U, Linderholm HW, Meko D, Xu HN, Yue WP, Wang SJ, Yuan YJ, Zheng JY, Pan W, Roig F, Hadad M, Hu M, Wei JC, Chen FH. Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty’s capital in 1644 CE. Sci Bull, 2024, 69(19): 3106-3114

[9] Cook ER (1985) A time series analysis approach to tree ring standardization (Dendrochronology, Forestry, Dendroclimatology, Autoregressive Process). Dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson

[10] Coulthard BL, Touchan R, Anchukaitis KJ, Meko DM, Sivrikaya F. Tree growth and vegetation activity at the ecosystem-scale in the eastern Mediterranean. Environ Res Lett, 2017, 12(8 084008

[11] Cuny HE, Rathgeber CBK, Frank D, Fonti P, Mäkinen H, Prislan P, Rossi S, Del Castillo EM, Campelo F, Vavrčík H, Camarero JJ, Bryukhanova MV, Jyske T, Gričar J, Gryc V, De Luis M, Vieira J, Čufar K, Kirdyanov AV, Oberhuber W, Treml V, Huang JG, Li XX, Swidrak I, Deslauriers A, Liang EY, Nöjd P, Gruber A, Nabais C, Morin H, Krause C, King G, Fournier M. Woody biomass production lags stem-girth increase by over one month in coniferous forests. Nat Plants, 2015, 1: 15160

[12] Ernakovich JG, Hopping KA, Berdanier AB, Simpson RT, Kachergis EJ, Steltzer H, Wallenstein MD. Predicted responses of Arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change. Glob Chang Biol, 2014, 20(103256-3269

[13] Eyring V, Bony S, Meehl GA, Senior CA, Stevens B, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci Model Dev, 2016, 9(51937-1958

[14] Gao S, Liang EY, Liu RS, Babst F, Julio Camarero J, Fu YH, Piao SL, Rossi S, Shen MG, Wang T, Peñuelas J. An earlier start of the thermal growing season enhances tree growth in cold humid areas but not in dry areas. Nat Ecol Evol, 2022, 6(4): 397-404

[15] Gazol A, Camarero JJ, Vicente-Serrano SM, Sánchez-Salguero R, Gutiérrez E, de Luis M, Sangüesa-Barreda G, Novak K, Rozas V, Tíscar PA, Linares JC, Martín-Hernández N, Del Castillo EM, Ribas M, García-González I, Silla F, Camisón A, Génova M, Olano JM, Longares LA, Hevia A, Tomás-Burguera M, Diego Galván J. Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes. Glob Chang Biol, 2018, 24(5): 2143-2158

[16] Gottlieb AR, Mankin JS. Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss. Nature, 2024, 625(7994): 293-300

[17] Higgins SI, Conradi T, Muhoko E. Shifts in vegetation activity of terrestrial ecosystems attributable to climate trends. Nat Geosci, 2023, 16(2): 147-153

[18] Holmes R. Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree-Ring Bull, 1983, 43: 69-78

[19] Huang JG, Deslauriers A, Rossi S. Xylem formation can be modeled statistically as a function of primary growth and cambium activity. New Phytol, 2014, 203(3): 831-841

[20] Immerzeel WW, Lutz AF, Andrade M, Bahl A, Biemans H, Bolch T, Hyde S, Brumby S, Davies BJ, Elmore AC, Emmer A, Feng M, Fernández A, Haritashya U, Kargel JS, Koppes M, Kraaijenbrink PA, Kulkarni AV, Mayewski PA, Nepal S, Pacheco P, Painter TH, Pellicciotti F, Rajaram H, Rupper S, Sinisalo A, Shrestha AB, Viviroli D, Wada Y, Xiao C, Yao T, Baillie JM. Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers. Nature, 2020, 577(7790): 364-369

[21] Jiang LM, Yang JW, Zhang C, Wu SL, Li Z, Dai LY, Li XF, Qiu YB. Daily snow water equivalent product with SMMR, SSM/I and SSMIS from 1980 to 2020 over China. Big Earth Data, 2022, 6(4): 420-434

[22] Kim JH, Hwang T, Yang Y, Schaaf CL, Boose E, Munger JW. Warming-induced earlier greenup leads to reduced stream discharge in a temperate mixed forest catchment. JGR Biogeosciences, 2018, 123(6): 1960-1975

[23] Kraaijenbrink PDA, Stigter EE, Yao TD, Immerzeel WW. Climate change decisive for Asia’s snow meltwater supply. Nat Clim Change, 2021, 11(7): 591-597

[24] Lian X, Piao SL, Li LZX, Li Y, Huntingford C, Ciais P, Cescatti A, Janssens IA, Peñuelas J, Buermann W, Chen AP, Li XY, Myneni RB, Wang XH, Wang YL, Yang YT, Zeng ZZ, Zhang YQ, McVicar TR. Summer soil drying exacerbated by earlier spring greening of northern vegetation. Sci Adv, 2020

[25] Ma XB, Shi YF, Shen YP, Yang B. An analysis of climate changing trend in northwest China: Recent and historical periods. J Glaciol Geocryol, 2003

[26] Mankin JS, Viviroli D, Singh D, Hoekstra AY, Diffenbaugh NS. The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future. Environ Res Lett, 2015, 10(11 114016

[27] Mark AF, Korsten AC, Guevara DU, Dickinson KJM, Humar-Maegli T, Michel P, Halloy SRP, Lord JM, Venn SE, Morgan JW, Whigham PA, Nielsen JA. Ecological responses to 52 years of experimental snow manipulation in high-alpine cushionfield, old man range, south-central New Zealand. Arct Antarct Alp Res, 2015, 47(4): 751-772

[28] McDowell NG, Allen CD, Anderson-Teixeira K, Aukema BH, Bond-Lamberty B, Chini L, Clark JS, Dietze M, Grossiord C, Hanbury-Brown A, Hurtt GC, Jackson RB, Johnson DJ, Kueppers L, Lichstein JW, Ogle K, Poulter B, Pugh TAM, Seidl R, Turner MG, Uriarte M, Walker AP, Xu CG. Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world. Science, 2020

[29] Mehmood K, Ahmad Anees S, Rehman A, Pan S, Tariq A, Zubair M, Liu QJ, Rabbi F, Khan KA, Luo M. Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics of NDVI and climate-driven responses in ecosystems: Insights for sustainable management and climate resilience. Ecol Inform, 2024, 80 102532

[30] Naegeli K (2021) ESA snow climate change initiative (snow_cci): Daily global snow cover fraction—snow on ground (SCFG) from AVHRR (1982–2019), version1.0

[31] Pasho E, Julio Camarero J, Vicente-Serrano SM. Climatic impacts and drought control of radial growth and seasonal wood formation in Pinus halepensis. Trees, 2012, 26(6): 1875-1886

[32] Paudel KP, Andersen P. Response of rangeland vegetation to snow cover dynamics in Nepal Trans Himalaya. Clim Change, 2013, 117(1): 149-162

[33] Peng SS, Piao SL, Ciais P, Fang JY, Wang XH. Change in winter snow depth and its impacts on vegetation in China. Glob Change Biol, 2010, 16(11): 3004-3013

[34] Piao SL, Liu Q, Chen AP, Janssens IA, Fu YS, Dai JH, Liu LL, Lian X, Shen MG, Zhu XL. Plant phenology and global climate change: current progresses and challenges. Glob Chang Biol, 2019, 25(6): 1922-1940

[35] Potopová V, Boroneanţ C, Možný M, Soukup J. Driving role of snow cover on soil moisture and drought development during the growing season in the Czech Republic. Int J Climatol, 2016, 36(11): 3741-3758

[36] Qian QF, Jia XJ, Wu RG. On the interdecadal change in the interannual variation in autumn snow cover over the central eastern Tibetan Plateau in the mid-1990s. J Geophys Res Atmos, 2020

[37] Qin Y, Abatzoglou JT, Siebert S, Huning LS, AghaKouchak A, Mankin JS, Hong CP, Tong D, Davis SJ, Mueller ND. Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt. Nat Clim Change, 2020, 10(5): 459-465

[38] Rossi S, Morin H, Deslauriers A. Causes and correlations in cambium phenology: towards an integrated framework of xylogenesis. J Exp Bot, 2012, 63(5): 2117-2126

[39] Rossi S, Girard MJ, Morin H. Lengthening of the duration of xylogenesis engenders disproportionate increases in xylem production. Glob Chang Biol, 2014, 20(7): 2261-2271

[40] Shaman J, Tziperman E. The effect of ENSO on Tibetan Plateau snow depth: a stationary wave teleconnection mechanism and implications for the south Asian monsoons. J Clim, 2005, 18(12): 2067-2079

[41] Shen ZL, Wang SJ, Chen F, Zhang HL, Zhao XE, Chen YP, Hu M. Decreasing productivity of pine forests on the southern edge of the Mongolian Plateau as indicated by tree rings. J Forestry Res, 2024, 35(1): 74

[42] Sippel S, Zscheischler J, Reichstein M. Ecosystem impacts of climate extremes crucially depend on the timing. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 2016, 113(215768-5770

[43] Trnka M, Brázdil R, Balek J, Semerádová D, Hlavinka P, Možný M, Štěpánek P, Dobrovolný P, Zahradníček P, Dubrovský M, Eitzinger J, Fuchs B, Svoboda M, Hayes M, Žalud Z. Drivers of soil drying in the Czech republic between 1961 and 2012. Int J Climatol, 2015, 35(9): 2664-2675

[44] Trujillo E, Molotch NP, Goulden ML, Kelly AE, Bales RC. Elevation-dependent influence of snow accumulation on forest greening. Nat Geosci, 2012, 5(10): 705-709

[45] Wang K, Zhang L, Qiu YB, Ji L, Tian F, Wang CZ, Wang ZY. Snow effects on alpine vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Int J Digit Earth, 2015, 8(1): 58-75

[46] Wang CH, Yang K, Li YL, Wu D, Bo Y. Impacts of spatiotemporal anomalies of Tibetan Plateau snow cover on summer precipitation in Eastern China. J Clim, 2017, 30(3): 885-903

[47] Wang JL, Yang B, Ljungqvist FC, Luterbacher J, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR, Zorita E. Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1, 200 years. Nat Geosci, 2017, 10(7): 512-517

[48] Wang XY, Wang T, Guo H, Liu D, Zhao YT, Zhang TT, Liu Q, Piao SL. Disentangling the mechanisms behind winter snow impact on vegetation activity in northern ecosystems. Glob Chang Biol, 2018, 24(4): 1651-1662

[49] Wang XY, Wu CY, Peng DL, Gonsamo A, Liu ZJ. Snow cover phenology affects alpine vegetation growth dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau: Satellite observed evidence, impacts of different biomes, and climate drivers. Agric for Meteor, 2018, 256: 61-74

[50] Wigley TML, Briffa KR, Jones PD. On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Climate Appl Meteor, 1984, 23(2): 201-213

[51] Wu ZW, Zhang P, Chen H, Li Y. Can the Tibetan Plateau snow cover influence the interannual variations of Eurasian heat wave frequency?. Clim Dyn, 2016, 46(11): 3405-3417

[52] Wu XF, Tang WH, Chen F, Wang SJ, Bakhtiyorov Z, Liu YX, Guan YS. Attribution and risk projections of hydrological drought over water-scarce central Asia. Earth’s Future, 2025

[53] Xiao ZX, Duan AM. Impacts of Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the interannual variability of the east Asian summer monsoon. J Clim, 2016, 29(23): 8495-8514

[54] Yan WB, Yang FL, Zhou J, Wu RD. Droughts force temporal change and spatial migration of vegetation phenology in the northern Hemisphere. Agric for Meteor, 2023, 341 109685

[55] Yang K, Wang CH. Frozen soil advances the effect of spring snow cover anomalies on subsequent precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. J Hydrometeorol, 2023, 24(2): 335-350

[56] Yao TD, Bolch T, Chen DL, Gao J, Immerzeel W, Piao SL, Su FG, Thompson L, Wada Y, Wang L, Wang T, Wu GJ, Xu BQ, Yang W, Zhang GQ, Zhao P. The imbalance of the Asian water tower. Nat Rev Earth Environ, 2022, 3(10): 618-632

[57] Ye KH, Wu RG, Liu Y. Interdecadal change of Eurasian snow, surface temperature, and atmospheric circulation in the late 1980s. J Geophys Res Atmos, 2015, 120(7): 2738-2753

[58] Yue WP, Chen F, Torbenson MCA, Zhao XE, Zheng YH, Xu Y, Hu M, Wang SJ, Hou TY, Zhang HL, Chen YP. Late Ming Dynasty weak monsoon induced a harmonized megadrought across north-to-South China. Commun Earth Environ, 2024, 5: 439

[59] Zeng ZQ, Wu WX, Ge QS, Li ZL, Wang XY, Zhou Y, Zhang ZT, Li YM, Huang H, Liu GX, Peñuelas J. Legacy effects of spring phenology on vegetation growth under preseason meteorological drought in the Northern Hemisphere. Agric for Meteor, 2021, 310 108630

[60] Zhang XL, Manzanedo RD, D’Orangeville L, Rademacher TT, Li JX, Bai XP, Hou MT, Chen ZJ, Zou FH, Song FB, Pederson N. Snowmelt and early to mid-growing season water availability augment tree growth during rapid warming in southern Asian boreal forests. Glob Chang Biol, 2019, 25(10): 3462-3471

[61] Zhang TW, Song JH, Fan YT, Liu Y, Yu SL, Guo D, Hou TH, Guo KL. Vegetation index research on the basis of tree-ring data: current status and prospects. Forests, 2023, 14(102016

[62] Zhao P, Zhou ZJ, Liu JP. Variability of Tibetan spring snow and its associations with the hemispheric extratropical circulation and east Asian summer monsoon rainfall: an observational investigation. J Clim, 2007, 20(153942-3955

[63] Zhao L, Dai AG, Dong B. Changes in global vegetation activity and its driving factors during 1982–2013. Agric for Meteor, 2018, 249: 198-209

[64] Zhao XE, Fang KY, Chen F, Martín H, Roig FA. Reconstructed Jing River streamflow from western China: a 399-year perspective for hydrological changes in the Loess Plateau. J Hydrol, 2023, 621 129573

[65] Zhao XE, Chen F, Seim A, Hu M, Akkemik Ü, Kopabayeva A, Mazarzhanova K, Zhang RB, Maisupova B, Kirillov V, Mambetov B, Yu SL, He Q, Dosmanbetov D, Kelgenbayev N. Global warming leads to growth increase in Pinus sylvestris in the Kazakh steppe. For Ecol Manag, 2024, 553 121635

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

Northeast Forestry University