The forecast of fire impact on Pinus sylvestris renewal in southwestern Siberia

Abstract

Simulation of fire impact on forest floor renewal in pine forests was based on predictions for 2100 by the Canadian Climate Centre for increase in temperatures of by 4.5 °C and total precipitation by 14% in the West Siberian pre-forest-steppes and empirical regression relationships between them and the degree of burnt forest floor, as well as amount of Pinus sylvestris L. regeneration. It was predicted that by 2100, pine regeneration on fire prone sites under the canopy of the dominant forest type will increase by 29–54% compared to the 1980s but on adjacent open sites, regeneration will decrease twice as much. This means that the regeneration potential and pine population stability in pre-forest-steppes will become as poor as it is today.

Keywords

Fire / Forecast / Stability / Population / Mathematical model / Seeds / Imitation model / Undergrowth

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