An overview of proven Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment tools for forests and forest-dependent communities across the globe: a literature analysis

Abstract

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (VA) tools for forest ecosystems and forest-dependent communities are important for making decisions and understanding the impact of climate change on both social and natural systems. However, the tools are poorly coordinated, making it difficult for policymakers to carry out VAs properly. The aim of this study was to analyze VA literature worldwide to find representative case studies in terms of methods and tools applied and which have been successful in performing VAs on forests and forest-dependent communities. All successful VA studies analyzed had common characteristics such as significant funding, data availability and technical capacity. An additional characteristic was the development of an integrated approach that considered the vulnerability of both ecosystems and communities by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. Community members and relevant stakeholders were significantly involved in a participatory process that concluded with the identification of adaptation measures. The case studies also revealed how policymakers need to choose suitable methods and tools to undertake efficient assessment of vulnerabilities. They need to consider several aspects of the VA process such as subject matter, availability of resources, time and scale.

Keywords

Vulnerable forest ecosystems / Bibliographic analysis / Forest-based community / Policy-maker decision supporting / Adaptation actions

References

[1] Bele MY, Tiani AM, Somorin OA, Sonwa DJ. Exploring vulnerability and adaptation to climate change of communities in the forest zone of Cameroon. Clim Change, 2013, 119: 875-889.

[2] Bouroncle C, Imbach P, Rodríguez-Sánchez B, Medellín C, Martinez-Valle A, Läderach P. Mapping climate change adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in Central America: ranking and descriptive approaches to support adaptation strategies. Clim Change, 2017, 141: 123-137.

[3] Briske DD, Joyce LA, Polley HW Climate-change adaptation on rangelands: linking regional exposure with diverse adaptive capacity. Front Ecol Environ, 2015, 13: 249-256.

[4] Brugnach M, Craps M, Dewulf A. Including indigenous peoples in climate change mitigation: addressing issues of scale, knowledge and power. Clim Change, 2014, 140: 19-32.

[5] Cockfield G, Maraseni T, Buys L, Sommerfeld J, Wilson C, Athukorala W (2010) Socio-economic implications of climate change with regard to forests and forest management. Contribution of work package 3 to the forest vulnerability assessment. Gold Coast, Australia: National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/attached_files_publications/Cockfield_2011_Socio_economic_implications.pdf. Accessed 18 Dec 2015

[6] Cutter SL, Emrich CT, Webb JJ, Morath D (2009) Social vulnerability to climate variability hazards: a review of the literature. Final report to Oxfam America. http://adapt.oxfamamerica.org/resources/Literature_Review.pdf. Accessed 3 May 2016

[7] Danzé A, Ambrose K, Ehrhart C (2009) Climate vulnerability and capacity analysis handbook. CARE International. http://careclimatechange.org/tool-kits/cvca/. Accessed 18 Jan 2016

[8] Dessai S, Hulme M. Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities?. Clim Policy, 2004, 4: 107-128.

[9] Di Matteo G, Nardi P, Ceci P Linking the forest research in the Mediterranean area: a framework to improve research capacities and cooperation. For Policy Econ, 2015, 50: 292-301.

[10] Eakin H, Luers AL. Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental systems. Annu Rev Environ Resour, 2006, 31(1): 365-394.

[11] Fatorić S, Seekamp E. Are cultural heritage and resources threatened by climate change? A systematic literature review. Clim Change, 2017, 142: 227-254.

[12] Fellmann T (2012) The assessment of climate change related vulnerability in the agricultural sector: reviewing conceptual frameworks. In: A. Meybeck, J. Lankoski, S. Redfern, N. Azzu, V. Gitz (eds) Building resilience for adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector—Proceedings of a Joint FAO/OECD Workshop 23–24 April 2012. Rome, FAO, pp 346. www.fao.org/docrep/017/i3084e/i3084e.pdf. Accessed 3 May 2016

[13] Fritzsche K, Schneiderbauer S, Bubeck P, Kienberger S, Buth M, Zebisch M, Kahlenborn W (2014) The vulnerability sourcebook: concept and guidelines for standardized vulnerability assessments. GIZ, Germany. www.weadapt.org/sites/weadapt.org/files/legacy-new/knowledgebase/files/1553/54c61b9fac123vulnerability-sourcebook-guidelines-for-assessments-giz-2014.pdf. Accessed 23 Dec 2015

[14] Füssel HM. Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Glob Environ Change, 2007, 17(2): 155-167.

[15] Füssel HM, Klein R. Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Clim Change, 2006, 75(3): 301-329.

[16] GIZ (2013a) Indonesia: vulnerabilities of ecosystem-dependent communities. Method brief. Inventory of methods for adaptation to climate change, Germany. https://gc21.giz.de/ibt/var/app/wp342deP/1443/index.php/knowledge/vulnerability-assessment/examples/vulnerabilities-of-ecosystem-dependent-communities/. Accessed 14 Jan 2016

[17] GIZ (2013b) Madagascar: vulnerability assessment in Boeny. Method brief. Inventory of methods for adaptation to climate change, Germany. https://gc21.giz.de/ibt/var/app/wp342deP/1443/wpcontent/uploads/filebase/va/vulnerability-method-briefs/giz-2013_Method_Brief_Madagascar_Vulnerability_Analysis_Boeny.pdf. Accessed 14 Jan 2016

[18] GIZ (2013c) Vulnerability assessments. Experiences of GIZ with vulnerability assessments at the local level, Germany. https://gc21.giz.de/ibt/var/app/wp342deP/1443/wp-content/uploads/filebase/va/vulnerability-guides-manuals-reports/giz-2013-en-vulnerability-assessment.pdf. Accessed 11 Dec 2015

[19] GIZ (2014) Integrating adaptation measures into sustainable forest management. Ackermann K, Burchards G, John R, Krauss J, Manasfi N, Olivier J, Potthast M, Renner I, Schmidt-Pramov F, Schwan S, Wegner N Germany. www.giz.de/expertise/downloads/giz2014-en-integrating-adaptation-measures-into-forest-management.pdf. Accessed 3 Jan 2017

[20] Halofsky JE, Peterson DL, Prendeville HR (2017) Assessing vulnerabilities and adapting to climate change in northwestern US forests. Clim Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1972-6. Springer. Accessed 25 April 2017

[21] Hammil A, Bizikova L, Dekens J, McCandless M (2012) Comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments: lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia. GIZ, Germany. https://gc21.giz.de/ibt/var/app/wp342deP/1443/wp-content/uploads/filebase/va/vulnerability-guides-manuals-reports/Comperative-analysis-of-climate-change-vulnerability-assessments.pdf. Accessed 14 Dec 2015

[22] INSTAT. Enquête périodique auprès des ménages 2010: Rapport Principale, 2011, Antananarivo: Ministère de l’Economie et de l’Industrie.

[23] INSTAT. Tableau de Bord de l’Economie, 2011, Antananarivo: Ministère de l’Economie et de l’Industrie.

[24] IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. IPCC Working Group II Contribution to AR5. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR White LL (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/. Accessed 2 Dec 2015

[25] Johnston MH, Edwards JE (2013) Adapting sustainable forest management to climate change: an analysis of Canadian case studies. Can Counc For Minist, Ottawa, ON. www.ccfm.org/pdf/ENG_CaseStudy_prf10.pdf. Accessed 4 May 2016

[26] Leichenko R, McDermott M, Bezborodko E, Brady M, Namendorf E. Economic vulnerability to climate change in coastal New Jersey: a stakeholder-based assessment. J Extreme Events, 2014 1 01 1450003

[27] Locatelli B, Herawati H, Brockhaus M, Idinoba M, Kanninen M (2008a) Methods and tools for assessing the vulnerability of forests and people to climate change. An introduction. Working paper nO. 43. CIFOR. www.cifor.org/publications/pdf_files/WPapers/WP43Locatelli.pdf. Accessed 29 Dec 2015

[28] Locatelli B, Kanninen M, Brockhaus M, Colfer CJP, Murdiyarso D, Santoso H (2008b) Facing an uncertain future: how forests and people can adapt to climate change. Forest perspectives no. 5. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia. www.cifor.org/publications/pdf_files/media/CIFOR_adaptation.pdf. Accessed 29 Dec 2015

[29] Mallari AEC. Climate change vulnerability assessment in the agriculture sector: Typhoon Santi experience. Proc Soc Behav Sci, 2016, 216: 440-451.

[30] McCormick S. Assessing climate change vulnerability in urban America: stakeholder-driven approaches. Clim Chang, 2016, 138: 397-410.

[31] McKenney DW, Pedlar JH, Papadopal P, Hutchinson MF. The development of 1901–2000 historical monthly climate models for Canada and the United States. Agric For Meteorol, 2006, 138: 69-81.

[32] Meadow AM, Ferguson DB, Guido Z Moving toward the deliberate coproduction of climate science knowledge. Weather Clim Soc, 2015, 7: 179-191.

[33] Metternicht G, Sabelli A, Spensley J. Climate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation assessment. Int J Clim Chang Strateg Manag, 2014, 6: 442-476.

[34] Petticrew M, Roberts H. Systematic reviews in the social sciences: a practical guide, 2006, Oxford: Wiley Blackwell

[35] Santoso H, Tjiu A, Muhammad A (2011) Vulnerability of eco system dependent villagers to climate variability: a case study from two villages by the Sentarum Lake, Kalimantan. In: Paper presented in the workshop on tropical wetland ecosystems of Indonesia: Science needs to address climate change adaptation and mitigation, Sanur beach Hotel, Bali, 11–14 April 2011

[36] Steiner JL, Briske DD, Brown DP, Rottler CM. Vulnerability of Southern Plains agriculture to climate change. Clim Change, 2017

[37] Termeer C, Dewulf A. Knieling J, Leal Filho W. Governance of wicked climate adaptation problems. Climate change governance, 2014, Berlin: Springer 27 39

[38] Tonmoy FN, El-Zein A, Hinkel J. Assessment of vulnerability to climate change using indicators. A meta-analysis of the the literature. WIREs. Clim Change, 2014, 5: 775-792.

[39] Weis SWM, Agostini VN, Roth LM, Gilmer B, Schill SR, Knowles JE, Blyther R. Assessing vulnerability: an integrated approach for mapping adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure. Clim Change, 2016, 136: 615-629. Springer)

[40] Williamson TB, Price DT, Beverly JL, Bothwell PM, Parkins JR, Patriquin MN, Pearce CV, Stedman RC, Volney WJA (2007) A framework for assessing vulnerability of forest-based communities to climate change. Nat Resour Can For Serv North For Cent, Edmonton, Alberta. Inf Rep NOR-X-414. http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/bookstore_pdfs/27507.pdf. Accessed 18 Dec 2015

[41] Williamson TB, Price DT, Beverly JL, Bothwell PM, Frenkel B, Park J, Patrquin MN (2008) Assessing potential biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on forest-based communities: a methodological case study. Nat Resour Cam Can For Serv, North For Cent, Edmonton, Alberta. Inf. Rep. NOR-X-415E. http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=29156. Accessed 18 Dec 2015

[42] Williamson TB, Campagna MA, Odgen AE (2012) Adapting sustainable forest management to climate change: a framework for assessing vulnerability and mainstreaming adaptation into decision making. Can Counc For Minist, Ottawa, ON. www.ccfm.org/pdf/WilliamsonVulnerability_Eng_Final.pdf. Accessed 18 Dec 2015

[43] Wood K, Roiko A, Waterman P, Wallace H (2010) Establishing the need and consultation with key stakeholders in forest policy and management under climate change. Contribution of work package 1 to the forest vulnerability assessment. Gold Coast, Australia: National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/attached_files_publications/Wood_2011_Establishing_the_need.pdf. Accessed 18 Dec 2015