Assessing the vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey: future evaluation

Abstract

This study evaluates the multifactorial spatial modelling used to assess vulnerability of the Düzlerçamı (Antalya) forest ecosystem to climate change. This was done to produce data, to develop tools to support decision-making and the management of vulnerable Mediterranean forest ecosystems affected by climate change, and to increase the ability of these forest ecosystems to adapt to global change. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become semiarid between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in this study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

Keywords

Forest ecosystem / RCP scenarios / Regional climate model / Vulnerability

References

[1] ABBB (2013) Antalya Büyük Şehir Belediyesi Başkanlığı (ABBB), Antalya

[2] Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Monti F, Nanni T. Temperature and precipitation in Italy in the last two centuries from homogenized instrumental time series. Int J Climatol, 2006, 26: 345-381.

[3] Bugmann H. Sensitivity of forests in the European Alps to future climatic change. Climate Res, 1997 8 1 3544

[4] Dünkeloh A, Jacobeit J. Circulation dynamics of Mediterranean precipitation variability 1948–98. Int J Climatol, 2003, 23: 1843-1866.

[5] Emberger L. Sur une formule climatique applicable en geographic botanique (About a formula applicable to plant geography). Comptes Rendus Hebdomadaires des Séances. Academie des Sciences Paris, 1930, 191: 389-391.

[6] Emberger L. Sur une Formule Climatique et Ses Applications en Botanique (On a climatic formula and its application in Botany). La Météorologie, 1932, 192–193: 423-432.

[7] GDF-1 (2012) Forest inventory results—2012, Forest Management and Planning Department Publication no. 86, Inventory series no. 13, Ankara 2012

[8] Giannakopoulos C, Le Sager P, Bindi M, Moriondo M, Kostopoulou E, Goodess CM. Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 °C global warming. Glob Planet Change, 2009, 68(3): 209-224.

[9] Gibelin AL, Dèquè M. Anthropogenic climate change over the Mediterranean region simulated by a global variable resolution model. Clim Dyn, 2003, 20: 327-339.

[10] IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

[11] IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

[12] Keenan T, Serra JM, Lloret F, Nınyerola M, Sabate S. Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO₂ matters. Glob Change Biol, 2011, 17(1): 565-579.

[13] Kosmas C, Ferrara A, Briasouli H, Imeson A (1999a) Methodology for mapping environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs) to desertification. In: Kosmas C, Kirkby M, Geeson N (eds) The Medalus project Mediterranean desertification and land use. Manual on key indicators of desertification and mapping environmentally sensitive areas to desertification. European Union 18882, pp 31–47, ISBN 92-828-6349-2

[14] Kosmas C, Kirkby M, Geeson N (1999b) Manual on: key indicators of desertification and mapping environmentally sensitive areas to desertification. European Commission, Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development, EUR 18882

[15] Kosmas C, Poesen J, Briasouli H (1999c) Key indicators of desertification at the ESAa scale. In: Manual on key indicators of desertification and mapping environmentally sensitive areas to desertification. MEDALUS III Project. King’s College, London

[16] Lloret F, Martinez-Vilalta J, Serra-Diaz JM, Ninyerola M. Relationship between projected changes in future climatic suitability and demographic and functional traits of forest tree species in Spain. Clim Change, 2013, 120(1): 449-462.

[17] Mazza G, Manetti MC. Growth rate and climate responses of Pinus pinea L. in Italian coastal stands over the last century. Clim Change, 2013, 121(4): 713-725.

[18] Musaoglu N, Erten E, Bozbay A, Çetin M, Özcan O (2014) Optimizing the production of goods and services by Mediterranean woodland ecosystems in the context of global changes, FFEM project report, July 2014

[19] Öztürk T, Ceber ZP, Türkeş M, Kurnaz ML. Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs. Int J Climatol, 2015, 35: 4276-4292.

[20] Stephens SL, Millar CI, Collins BM. Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of changing climates. Environ Res Lett, 2010 5 2 024003

[21] Türkeş M. Impacts of the climate change on agricultural food security, traditional knowledge and agroecology. Turk J Agric Food Sci Technol, 2014, 2(2): 71-85.

[22] Türkeş M, Musaoğlu N (2016) Technical report of the vulnerability assessment to climate change and variability of the Mediterranean forest ecosystem: pilot site of Düzlerçamı (Turkey). Final report for the component 1 of project “Maximize the production of goods and services of Mediterranean forest ecosystems in the context of global changes (GCP/GLO/458/FRA).” Published by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and Plan Bleu pourl Environnement et le Développement en Méditerranée (Plan Bleu). ISBN 978-92-5-109566-9

[23] Turp MT, Öztürk T, Türkeş M, Kurnaz ML. Investigation of projected changes for near future air temperature and precipitation climatology of Turkey and surrounding regions by using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4.3.5. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 2014, 23(1): 1-24. (in Turkish)