A statistical analysis of spatiotemporal variations and determinant factors of forest carbon storage under China’s Natural Forest Protection Program

Abstract

The Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) is one of the key ecological forestry programs in China. It not only facilitates the improvement of forest ecological quality in NFPP areas, but also plays a significant role in increasing the carbon storage of forest ecosystems. The program covers 17 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities with correspondingly diverse forest resources and environments, ecological features, engineering measures and forest management regimes, all of which affect regional carbon storage. In this study, volume of timber harvest, tending area, pest-infested forest, fire-damaged forest, reforestation, and average annual precipitation, and temperature were evaluated as factors that influence carbon storage. We developed a vector autoregression model for these seven indicators and we studied the dominant factors of carbon storage in the areas covered by NFPP. Timber harvest was the dominant factor influencing carbon storage in the Yellow and Yangtze River basins. Reforestation contributed most to carbon storage in the state-owned forest region in Xinjiang. In state-owned forest regions of Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces, the dominant factors were forest fires and forest cultivation, respectively. For the enhancement of carbon sequestration capacity, a longer rotation period and a smaller timber harvest are recommended for the Yellow and Yangtze River basins. Trees should be planted in state-owned forests in Xinjiang. Forest fires should be prevented in state-owned forests in Heilongjiang, and greater forest tending efforts should be made in the state-owned forests in Jilin.

Keywords

Forest carbon storage / Influencing factors / Natural forest protection program / Variance decomposition / Vector autoregression (VAR) model

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